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Re: Tropical Storm Melissa Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall
Sat Sep 29 2007 05:15 PM
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Karen lives on! Well, kinda..... I think we need a new designation and will make the pitch to NHC! In addition to extra-tropical and sub-tropical, I believe the need exists for a new acronym which would expand the commonly used TD, TS, and HURR. Hmmm, how 'bout "REFUSING TO DIE" or "RTD" - " for " Weakened Tropical Cyclone Having NO Closed Circulation Containing Winds Less Than 25mph, Where Models Predict Hurricane Strength in 72 hrs. or Less!! KIdding of course........, Per recent NHC discussion, along with the obvious, Karen joins the ranks of Tropical "Has-Beens" refusing to die. Amazing how some dynamic models remain quick to restrengthen Karen in a few days. What will be left to strengthen though? I give up attempting to think I have a real handle on this one, but one thing for sure, given Karen's originally large envelope, it would stand to reason that it would take longer to "unwind" than most smaller tropical cyclones. If Karen were to get picked up and move north to northeast, than I could far easier see re-intensification, as motion would lessen the impact of shear. I just do not see a remnant surface to 850mb reflection of Karen, moving west to WNW 3 days from now; meanwhile re-intensifying. Either a westward moving remnant low, or a soon to be mid latitude extra tropcal hurricane moving away from the CONUS.
Sitting here, suffering from "Tropcal Envy" as well as "Tropical Cyclone Fatigue" along with making an observation, i'll toss out this interesting and perhaps utterly and useless factoid: 70% , or 9 out of the 13 ( ok, am exaggerating is actually 69% ) of all named tropical cyclones this year, have passed within approx. 700 miles of Havana, Cuba. Point being, that conditions thus far, and quite soon climatology itself, would indicate where the majority of remaining activity might yet occur. With this, I am going to turn my attention to what I believe to be the next INVEST . For the sake of Forum continuity, however will initiate a new thread in the Forecast Lounge to discuss what I believe to be the next system to watch.
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