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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
The deal.
      Tue Oct 02 2007 07:42 PM

Looks like a few areas of interest for points in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico over the next week and a half. 90L doesn't look like it's going to do anything major. Situation and setup is quasi TD #10. If it follows the trends of TD #10, (formed from a wave, trough and ULL), look for a few rotating centers around a broader low tomorrow as things wind up a little. Could be anything from a broad low to a subtropical depression to even a mid-grade tropical storm by landfall somewhere between Galveston and Destin. Models want to say SW LA, but we saw that with TD #10, and they were all too far south pulling #10 west. It eventually got to Texas, but it rode up on 33/34N.

90L appears to be setting the table for a much larger threat the following week. 18z GFS puts landfalls a fairly large system inland after landfall between Mobile and PCB at 216 hours +/-. That's 9 days from lunchtime, or +/- Thursday of next week. As most of you probably know, many of the models have been hinting that the secondary area (east of Florida) would also close off and possibly turn into something far more substantial than what 90L could likely get to. It's still too far out to know. We should have some indication by the weekend if we're going to be facing a real threat next week. What the 18z GFS does is bring it down toward Cuba and over to the Yucatan then fades it up to the Panhandle. Based soley on the 18z GFS, I think anything prior developed would likely be weakening at landfall rather than strengthening as we've seen this year in the Western Gulf. This does not in any way mean that I believe we'll have a weakening, landfalling storm in the NE Gulf next Thursday and is solely based on the model and potential heat content from Jeff Master's first half of October update released today or yesterday.

*edit* link to the 216 hour 18z GFS (subject of the above)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_216.shtml

Steve

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 02 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: who wants to call noel? cieldumort   Thu Oct 04 2007 12:32 AM
. * * Re: who wants to call noel? Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 03 2007 08:27 PM
. * * Re: who wants to call noel? flahurricane   Wed Oct 03 2007 07:00 PM
. * * who wants to call noel? HanKFranK   Wed Oct 03 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: invest variety weathernet   Wed Oct 03 2007 05:20 PM
. * * Re: invest variety WeatherNut   Wed Oct 03 2007 05:11 PM
. * * Re: invest variety zacros   Wed Oct 03 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: invest variety neospaceblue   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: invest variety Hurricane29   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:20 PM
. * * Re: invest variety cieldumort   Wed Oct 03 2007 11:14 AM
. * * Re: invest variety tekkrite   Wed Oct 03 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: invest variety madmumbler   Wed Oct 03 2007 09:02 AM
. * * comebacks LoisCane   Wed Oct 03 2007 08:22 AM
. * * invest variety HanKFranK   Wed Oct 03 2007 07:24 AM
. * * Is Melissa making a comeback? Bloodstar   Wed Oct 03 2007 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Current Radar Winds cieldumort   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Current Radar Winds danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:12 AM
. * * Re: The deal. allan   Tue Oct 02 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: The deal. EMS   Tue Oct 02 2007 09:50 PM
. * * The deal. Steve   Tue Oct 02 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida CDMOrlando   Tue Oct 02 2007 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 02 2007 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida CDMOrlando   Tue Oct 02 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida allan   Tue Oct 02 2007 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida allan   Mon Oct 01 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida weather_wise911   Mon Oct 01 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida weather_wise911   Mon Oct 01 2007 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida weathernet   Mon Oct 01 2007 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida CDMOrlando   Mon Oct 01 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Ed in Va   Mon Oct 01 2007 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Rabbit   Mon Oct 01 2007 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida madmumbler   Mon Oct 01 2007 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida LoisCane   Sun Sep 30 2007 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida weathernet   Sun Sep 30 2007 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida DaViking   Sun Sep 30 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Ed in Va   Sun Sep 30 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Recon Schedule danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 30 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida punkyg   Sun Sep 30 2007 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 30 2007 11:39 AM

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