cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: invest variety
Wed Oct 03 2007 11:14 AM
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Well, a recent Quikscat from 0844Z shows Melissa to still be more of an open wave at the surface, but one can't argue that she has had some intermittent close-offs from time to time, perhaps. Certainly, if nothing else, her LLC has remained intact, and convection never completely went away, either. I'm not confident that this all will be added post-season, as it is not entirely clear if they will feel this activity is sufficient, as it doesn't necessarily meet the requisites for being a tropical cyclone. I think we simply do not have enough scat passes, certainly recon, etc., to know for sure one way or another, right now.
The wave down near 10N 40W (now 91L) probably has the very best shot of becoming something classic, and fully tropical, in the near-term. Invests 90 & 92 have a lot of humble hybrid beginnings to work through, even before they could become classified as subtropical storms, let alone tropical storms. With all of the dry air enveloping the low, mid, and upper lows associated with 90L, it's got the ocean, but still might not have the time, considering how it is having to overcome such an impediment. Still, not out of the question that it gets a name. It has sure cleared a way by laying a path of juicier air and less hostile shear for 92L behind it. Stands to reason that 92 might ramp up as a more fully tropical cyclone than subtropical.
September tied the record for most named. October looks like it wants to at least try to follow in those footsteps. Also, during September we saw three record-setting storms: Felix, Humberto & Lorenzo. I wasn't able to really catch the particular TWC TU, but by what little smidgen I caught from the corner of my eye it looks like Dr. Lyons stated that 2007 is now tied for third place for most named subtropical cyclones (although only one, Andrea, remained tracked as such). Yet, despite all of this, the ACE is running a meager 60.6, as it stands... lots of systems, but shorter life-spans.
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