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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: who wants to call noel?
      Thu Oct 04 2007 12:32 AM

90 sure looks like it's trying tonight.. perhaps a last-ditch effort.. a real "college try" before the influx of high shear and dry air from the northwest, in addition to all that dry air 90's been coping with thus far, inflicts another, and the potentially mortal, blow. By all appearances, 90 is attempting to become a tropical cyclone, rather than subtropical. The deepest convection keeps occurring closer to the center, than away, and scatterometer does show a tendency of the winds to increase in strength - if you can call it that - as they grow closer to the center. The strongest winds associated with 90L have consistently been a result of the pressure gradient from the High to its north and northwest. Without that, surface winds might be about 25 knots, as estimated by NRL. I saw a 40MPH sustained at an elevated oil rig (up over 100 feet, and not representative of the surface winds). So, there are certainly some stronger sustained winds in there that might be brought down in squalls. With hours left before this upcoming blast from the northwest, imho the next 20-30 hours are critical as to whether or not 90 ever gets a formal designation. After that, it's probably c'est la vie.

92L has piqued my interest some more tonight. I think I'm like many of us who appreciated watching that awol llc blasting off to the northwest earlier during daylight hours. Looking more and more like this will be where Florida gets at least its next round of wet, blustery weather from, at the very least. (In concert with the building high to its north) - With so much deep tropical moisture, outflow, developing and likely improving anticyclonic flow aloft, surface trofiness, et. al., I find it very hard to argue against something taking hold over the next 4 days or so from this feature.

Most recent SSD estimates:
03/2345 UTC 9.6N 43.4W TOO WEAK 91L
03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
03/2345 UTC 26.8N 87.7W T1.5/1.5 90L


Edit - 92L is just looking better and better farther south and east, down near 21N 70W, isn't it? Scat shows the broad surface low centered much farther north and west, but it is really hard to let the eyeballs ignore the obvious - persistent, deep convection - and now with the large upper level anticyclone quite pronounced... Makes one wonder how much 90L gave up that 92L could take advantage of. On the face of it, it looks like it could be a lot.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 04 2007 02:29 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 04 2007 12:32 AM
. * * Re: who wants to call noel? cieldumort   Thu Oct 04 2007 12:32 AM
. * * Re: who wants to call noel? Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 03 2007 08:27 PM
. * * Re: who wants to call noel? flahurricane   Wed Oct 03 2007 07:00 PM
. * * who wants to call noel? HanKFranK   Wed Oct 03 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: invest variety weathernet   Wed Oct 03 2007 05:20 PM
. * * Re: invest variety WeatherNut   Wed Oct 03 2007 05:11 PM
. * * Re: invest variety zacros   Wed Oct 03 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: invest variety neospaceblue   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: invest variety Hurricane29   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:20 PM
. * * Re: invest variety cieldumort   Wed Oct 03 2007 11:14 AM
. * * Re: invest variety tekkrite   Wed Oct 03 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: invest variety madmumbler   Wed Oct 03 2007 09:02 AM
. * * comebacks LoisCane   Wed Oct 03 2007 08:22 AM
. * * invest variety HanKFranK   Wed Oct 03 2007 07:24 AM
. * * Is Melissa making a comeback? Bloodstar   Wed Oct 03 2007 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Current Radar Winds cieldumort   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Current Radar Winds danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 03 2007 12:12 AM
. * * Re: The deal. allan   Tue Oct 02 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: The deal. EMS   Tue Oct 02 2007 09:50 PM
. * * The deal. Steve   Tue Oct 02 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida CDMOrlando   Tue Oct 02 2007 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 02 2007 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida CDMOrlando   Tue Oct 02 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida allan   Tue Oct 02 2007 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida allan   Mon Oct 01 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida weather_wise911   Mon Oct 01 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida weather_wise911   Mon Oct 01 2007 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida weathernet   Mon Oct 01 2007 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Florida CDMOrlando   Mon Oct 01 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Ed in Va   Mon Oct 01 2007 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Rabbit   Mon Oct 01 2007 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 01 2007 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida madmumbler   Mon Oct 01 2007 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida LoisCane   Sun Sep 30 2007 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida weathernet   Sun Sep 30 2007 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida DaViking   Sun Sep 30 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Ed in Va   Sun Sep 30 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Recon Schedule danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 30 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida punkyg   Sun Sep 30 2007 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 30 2007 11:39 AM

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