cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: who wants to call noel?
Thu Oct 04 2007 12:32 AM
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90 sure looks like it's trying tonight.. perhaps a last-ditch effort.. a real "college try" before the influx of high shear and dry air from the northwest, in addition to all that dry air 90's been coping with thus far, inflicts another, and the potentially mortal, blow. By all appearances, 90 is attempting to become a tropical cyclone, rather than subtropical. The deepest convection keeps occurring closer to the center, than away, and scatterometer does show a tendency of the winds to increase in strength - if you can call it that - as they grow closer to the center. The strongest winds associated with 90L have consistently been a result of the pressure gradient from the High to its north and northwest. Without that, surface winds might be about 25 knots, as estimated by NRL. I saw a 40MPH sustained at an elevated oil rig (up over 100 feet, and not representative of the surface winds). So, there are certainly some stronger sustained winds in there that might be brought down in squalls. With hours left before this upcoming blast from the northwest, imho the next 20-30 hours are critical as to whether or not 90 ever gets a formal designation. After that, it's probably c'est la vie.
92L has piqued my interest some more tonight. I think I'm like many of us who appreciated watching that awol llc blasting off to the northwest earlier during daylight hours. Looking more and more like this will be where Florida gets at least its next round of wet, blustery weather from, at the very least. (In concert with the building high to its north) - With so much deep tropical moisture, outflow, developing and likely improving anticyclonic flow aloft, surface trofiness, et. al., I find it very hard to argue against something taking hold over the next 4 days or so from this feature.
Most recent SSD estimates:
03/2345 UTC 9.6N 43.4W TOO WEAK 91L
03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
03/2345 UTC 26.8N 87.7W T1.5/1.5 90L
Edit - 92L is just looking better and better farther south and east, down near 21N 70W, isn't it? Scat shows the broad surface low centered much farther north and west, but it is really hard to let the eyeballs ignore the obvious - persistent, deep convection - and now with the large upper level anticyclone quite pronounced... Makes one wonder how much 90L gave up that 92L could take advantage of. On the face of it, it looks like it could be a lot.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 04 2007 02:29 AM)
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