cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There
Sat Oct 06 2007 03:44 PM
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Saturday afternoon and this is what is up there
Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST
(92L removed)
91L.INVEST
90L.INVEST
14L.MELISSA
This is about as much "stuff" as I've ever seen being tracked at one time without a name or two popping out: Five plus a recent removal. (For all practical purposes 14L is now no more developed than any other invest, of course)
Frankly, 91L almost looks good to go. One of those out-there systems that is being downplayed a little because it is under some high shear. An alternate view would point out that it is often the more highly-sheared systems that-- if they are otherwise intact -- are inherently stronger than would be expected. A T number of 1.0 for this system is likely unrepresentative.
Other than 91, which has had solid form to greater or lesser degrees for several days now, I can't hone in on any other one "Invest," as they rearrange, reform, recenter themselves seemingly just as quickly as they get put up. It would almost be just as reasonable to put up Invest 95 ... and then issue subsets (95a, 95b, and so on) at this point. There simply hasn't been any consistent consolidation among these other features of any significance, so far.
Until we see one of these subset invests really take, my eyes are on 91 for holding the best chance of earning Noel. Next to that, possibly another (newest) convective low level swirl, just to the east of 93L, that does not yet have an Invest tag on it... (93L being around 21.6N-68.6W per NRL) while this latest vortice is located around 21.3N 66.5W
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