cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There
Sun Oct 14 2007 06:59 PM
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99 (birthed from x94, no doubt) continues in the tradition of its predecessor, embattled with dry land. Hard to not have been more impressed with what was a hybridizing extratropical low that formed farther northeast along 94s associated trof (this low centered roughly east of Bermuda at the time), and dropped some pressures to about as low as 998 or so, while bumping winds up above 40 knots. Later, what was left of TD15 had gone on to merge with the same trough, and it's a little surprising no invest tag went up on that location, although the waters ahead are quickly cooling, and shear was certainly not light, overall.
Looks like 98 has had a little more going on at the surface, and despite very strong shear, has been able to pop an occasional shower or two right in the coc. Some feeble but obvious attempts at some banding still seem to be holding on. If shear lessens up a bit before this one moves inland, I think maybe just maybe something can actually take. Not a lot of there there in either one, just yet. Par for the course for mid Octobers.
It would be helpful should not only NRL be experiencing processing delays today, but additionally, neither Invest has a floater on it yet. Ships and buoy data in the region are sparse to nonexistent. For most of today, conventional satellite seems to have been the best divining rod we have had to work with on these two.
Interestingly, if either of these guys can pop, about half of the tentative model guidance suggests that a turn northward into upper Mexico-Texas, or even northeast of there, could become very possible.
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