cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Things could be getting interesting near both coasts: Kiko & Increasingly favorable W. Atlantic.
Sat Oct 20 2007 03:25 AM
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Two changes in the tropical landscape tonight:
KIKO:
Tropical Storm Kiko is on the fast track to become a hurricane, likely sooner than later, and quite possibly as early as overnight. Looks about as good as any already, and, well, frankly almost looks to be on that "West GOM Rapid Intensification Plan" (TM), at this time. Several models have been forecasting this, and tonight Kiko is in the process of firming up and clearing out an eye. This looks to be taking place sooner than many of the models suggested. As for track - the models basically split, and I'll quote NHC's most recent Kiko Discussion:
KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES
AT 4 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL LIKELY KEEP KIKO ON
THE SAME GENERAL SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...I
EMPHASIZE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF KIKO AND EVENTUALLY FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
EQUALLY RELIABLE UK AND GFDL/HWRF GROUP SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE AREA OF CABO
CORRIENTES AND THE SEA OF CORTES. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...TURNING KIKO WESTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AWAY FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER...WE MUST BE READY TO
MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IF THE NORTHWARD TREND SUGGESTED
BY THE UK/GFDL/HWRF RUNS BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS OPTION COULD
RESULT IN A STRONGER CYCLONE SINCE THE OCEAN IS VERY WARM NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SO STAY TUNED.
WESTERN ATLANTIC INC. S.EAST COAST, CARIBBEAN & GOM:
Shear is clearly starting to ease up a good bit within a few pockets, now running as low as <15 knots in a few respectably sizable locations. The ULL is helping to juice up the entire area, undoing what the cold front has done. Additionally, a trough has taken up shop in the GOM, stretching from the SW Bay of Campeche, and stretching northeasterly, ending offshore of roughly Jacksonville. The cold front appears to be slowing, possibly entering a stall. ULL itself appears to have made a few inroads into working down a bit. In a word, the entire region is becoming somewhat favorable again. This is clearly being reflected in the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product, as can be seen below, now indicating two statistically significant regions of enhanced formation probabilities close to home:
(Please read the description of the Storm Forum and note that comments on EASTPAC systems do not belong there. Thread moved to the more appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 20 2007 02:06 PM)
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