allan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October
Tue Oct 23 2007 02:07 PM Attachment (599 downloads)
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Very interesting areas today.. it's like the tropics woke up from a month long sleep. The Lesser Antilies wave is looking more better as it is in marginal conditions. If the CIMMS shear map is right, the shear really decreased some from yesterday. Maybe this whole storm idea may not be out of the question as the NOGAPS, GFS, CMC, NAM, UKMET, and almost the EURO hint at something forming out of this. I see where the EURO and UKMET are showing development, a nice looking blob but in 20 knots of shear. Shear just only needs to dcrease 10 knots more if something wants to get going, I have a feeling this will happen in the coming days. I was interested in the blob in the BOC, but it looks cold core to me.
Bottom line folks, shear is finally decreasing enough for somethings to look interesting. The Lesser Antinlies wave looks huge and I do see a spin whether it's mid level or low level, didn't quite make out a low level on the quickscat this morning. I agree with Dr. Masters, it would not surprise me if a depression forms late this week or this weekend as models are decreasing the shear for some formation.
please see attachment above for the areas of interest....
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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