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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 277 (Idalia) , Major: 277 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 277 (Idalia) Major: 277 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October
      Thu Oct 25 2007 02:11 PM

90L doesn't look half-bad. They could have tagged this one yesterday. It's formed on the tail end of a frontal feature associated with the giant non-tropical low centered out over the central Atlantic. Shear over 90L isn't horrific at this time, although certainly not helping it any. I wouldn't pay any attention to tropical cyclone heat potential for any system that is in an environment barely supportive of tropical cyclogenesis, as it is. In fact, the atmosphere is likely to be a far, far greater determinant of this system's true potential than the TCHP (assuming 90l can actually pop in the first place). Conventional satellite, buoy and ship reports suggest it could be a fighter.

Other areas of interest include the remains of a wave in the central Caribbean and/or the southern portion of the strong cold front that is going stationary this morning. Some models still want to create a tc down in there over the next 4-7 days, which doesn't look impossible. There's also the rest of the above-mentioned very large non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic, without any model support to speak of, but which could slowly acquire some subtropical characteristics as it meanders over subtropical to marginally tropical waters out there somewhere in the vicinity of 25N 45W +/- five or ten in any direction.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Very Quiet Mid to Late October MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 25 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean-Recon for Sunday Doombot!   Sun Oct 28 2007 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean-Recon for Sunday craigm   Sun Oct 28 2007 12:50 AM
. * * Caribbean-Recon for Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2007 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October allan   Sat Oct 27 2007 03:34 PM
. * * Re: -Caribbean disturbances are gaining some respect- cieldumort   Sat Oct 27 2007 03:21 PM
. * * -Caribbean disturbances are gaining some respect- cieldumort   Sat Oct 27 2007 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October Tak   Fri Oct 26 2007 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October ChessieStorm   Fri Oct 26 2007 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October mikethewreck   Fri Oct 26 2007 03:45 AM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October Storm Hunter   Fri Oct 26 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October cieldumort   Thu Oct 25 2007 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October xxflcyclonexx   Thu Oct 25 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October cieldumort   Thu Oct 25 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October allan   Thu Oct 25 2007 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October allan   Tue Oct 23 2007 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October cieldumort   Tue Oct 23 2007 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October vpbob21   Mon Oct 22 2007 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October cchsweatherman   Mon Oct 22 2007 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October doug   Mon Oct 22 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October cieldumort   Fri Oct 19 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October allan   Fri Oct 19 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 19 2007 02:18 PM

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