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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD 16 Early Satellite views
      Sun Oct 28 2007 03:19 AM

I'm thinking a lot of the very deep convective flareups that we have been watching in the eastern semicircle could start to wane should the ULL just a hair to its west begin really weakening and/or pulling away. Then we may start to see less "pockets" of very deep, really rather unorganized convection, and more true banding all the way around. Still always the possibility of the LLC jumping into the deeper bursts, but that looks somewhat unlikely considering how well-maintained the LLC has been all week, and how there are some hints of incipient banding wrapping all the way around it now.

As NHC states, both the track and intensity forecasts are much less certain than usual with 16. I suspect that once data starts coming in from recon and gets fed into the models a clearer picture starts to show up. Still, it is possible that even with the data the sorta kinda wild cards of island (land) interaction, high ocean heat content in the nw caribbean, upper-level low to its west, etc. bust up any forecast that gets made Sunday night, too.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic danielwAdministrator Sun Oct 28 2007 03:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic scottsvb   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:23 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic Lee-Delray   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:03 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic saluki   Mon Oct 29 2007 05:19 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic doug   Mon Oct 29 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic doug   Mon Oct 29 2007 04:43 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic scottsvb   Mon Oct 29 2007 04:36 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic Lamar-Plant City   Mon Oct 29 2007 04:29 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic doug   Mon Oct 29 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2007 03:56 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 03:51 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic doug   Mon Oct 29 2007 03:47 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 03:31 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic doug   Mon Oct 29 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic Steve H1   Mon Oct 29 2007 12:31 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic doug   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:18 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic allan   Mon Oct 29 2007 09:38 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 05:57 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 04:23 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic dem05   Mon Oct 29 2007 04:07 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 02:13 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 01:53 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic LoisCane   Mon Oct 29 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic allan   Mon Oct 29 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Night satellite images danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm Noel Steve H1   Sun Oct 28 2007 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm Noel vineyardsaker   Sun Oct 28 2007 09:36 PM
. * * Tropical storm Noel ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 28 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Late October Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Sea Gigsley   Sun Oct 28 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Late October Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Sea LoisCane   Sun Oct 28 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: sweet sixteen CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Oct 28 2007 01:42 PM
. * * sweet sixteen HanKFranK   Sun Oct 28 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Late October Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Sea Cat 5orBust   Sun Oct 28 2007 09:31 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 Early Satellite views cieldumort   Sun Oct 28 2007 03:19 AM
. * * TD 16 Early Satellite views danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2007 01:58 AM

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