cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Noel South of Haiti/Dominican Republic
Mon Oct 29 2007 09:57 AM
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Let's see what we can determine from a good deal of daylight, but most certainly at least what was "Noel" (pronounced Knoll in case anyone is still wondering) is over the Dominican Republic & Haiti at this hour... and based on a rather exhaustive flight by recon overnight, it looks like a center reformed under the convective burst, and drew back down surface pressures to about 1002mb (down from 1004) prior to landfall.
However, giving a tip of the hat to Dem's observation above, as well as the NAM and GFS 00Z runs, it appears that there could be a situation where, oddly enough, the new LLC/old MLC go on to do something.. or much of nothing.. or perhaps a lot of something.. off to the north/northwest of DR/Haiti this week .. while, meanwhile back at the Rancho Caribbean, the old LLC drifts.. perhaps as per NAM, to get its act together and head west-northwest towards the Yucatan Channel.
A fortuitous pass just came in from the AMSRE, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), on board NASA's Earth Observation System (EOS) Aqua satellite: from an ob at 0647Z that really suggests to me that this may indeed be the case. Look closely, and you may conclude this yourself from the image provided through this link.
Still, I'll be more convinced of anything after several hours of daylight and more microwave passes. It's probably prudent to say that all areas from the western Caribbean to Florida to Cuba to the Bahamas to Bermuda still need to be alert this upcoming week.
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