cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas
Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM
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(Post moved from prior thread as this main page lead was going up as I was typing)
Well, models have pulled a bit back to the left. Not at all surprising, as Noel appears to be heading even a touch left of these runs.
It is time for Floridians to begin taking much more note of Noel, and I'll lay out why -
First - Noel has had throughout its history, even well-before ever being officially declared a tropical cyclone, nearly a preponderance of the strongest winds occurring within the fairly tight pressure gradient mostly within his northern semicircle. This is because of the area of high pressure which surrounds Noel to his north, and this is likely to continue to some extent through the next several days, even with the real potential for a front or shortwave to come on down and sweep him away. As such, on Noel's current official forecast, these gradient winds may cause some very strong north-easterlies along the east coast of Florida, regardless of whether or not Noel comes ashore, or very nearly ashore. All should remember that the effects of a tropical cyclone are often felt well in advance and well away from its center of circulation. These winds, and associated dangerous rip currents, could be bugging coastal Florida as early as mid week and even last through the end of the week.
Second - For a couple of days now Noel has continued to tap in to a deep moisture feed, producing copious tropical torrents. While most have occurred to the north, east, and southeast of the center, some have wrapped around from the east and northeast, to affect locations within the northwestern quadrant. Based on the current track it could be easy for some of these very heavy squalls to affect south Florida mid to late week.
Now for the others -
It goes without saying that it is Halloween, and even a Tropical Storm just offshore can cause a significant increase in injuries or worse to unwary party-goers, ghouls and goblins who are not exercising prudent caution in their plans. Without a doubt, extra care should be taken at the beach, and out in the water. Should squalls indeed come inland, driving conditions may quickly go downhill. Additionally, interaction with land can lead to an increase in severe thunderstorm cells, including tornadic supercells. Even without a more widespread wind and rain event, individual squall lines and isolated supercells may wreak havoc on party-goers heading out, or coming back in. Etc.
Considering track -
It is not yet written in stone that the front or short wave is fast enough or south enough to lift Noel off to the northeast before a landfall in SoFlo would become more possible, or even likely. Already a number of us have witnessed the leftward bias since Noel came off the northwest tip of Hispaniola. Furthermore, Noel is moving faster than the models forecast, so it may also outrun the front/shortwave energy, and travel a good bit farther west before recurvature.
In summary, it is probably now prudent to expect something of a wind, rain and rip current event in Florida and along Florida's coast starting about mid week and continuing for a total of one, two, or perhaps even three days. How intense, still a bit unknown. It doesn't take a hurricane to cause a lot of weather woes, perhaps especially around any holiday.
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