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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#4A 2:00 pm EDT
22.0N 92.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Non Tropical model run
      Tue Oct 30 2007 05:51 AM

Daniel,

Yeah, I just read the same and thought......."uh oh"....
Things could get real interesting, real quick if recon comes in with any 997's (mb). With sat. and Cuban radar depicting motion seemingly hugging the coastline, do you know how hindered NOAA will be in getting solid obs.??

Shortly after my above submission, just noticed NHC with 2:00am. intermediate showing recon coming in with 999mb. Also, as the 0z models are coming in, am seeing the FSU MM3 similar to the Canadian with a more westward motion or "land tour" of Cuba, before hooking north. Meanwhile in order for GFDL to be on the mark, Noel will have to take an immediate due north turn. Given the appearant West to WNW motion, looks like the GFDL is off the mark. UK, like the GFDL intensifies Noel, but bring him directly over Andros Island, before leaving for greener pastures. Just goes to show how having all the right "initial" components play so differently with any model's outcome.

While leaving my previous "forecast" post accordingly in the Forecast Lounge, I will nonetheless simply state that things may truly become more dicey for us folks here in the Southern Florida area, come morning. Perhaps the Canadian model will have "nailed" it and Noel will take the land tour, thus weakening it substantially? Pinning hope on the Canadian though, may be like us Dolphin fans hoping on winning the next 8 games ( LOL ).

Edited by weathernet (Tue Oct 30 2007 06:18 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Noel Over Cuba, Weaker MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 30 2007 05:51 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker allan   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 06:25 AM
. * * Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 06:12 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:27 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:11 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:54 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions dem05   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:02 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:35 AM
. * * CUBA current conditions danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:29 AM
. * * SE Florida current conditions danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:17 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:05 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track jessiej   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:11 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Old Sailor   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:31 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:23 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:14 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Steve H1   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:01 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:52 PM
. * * storm still moving west LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:10 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:38 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:35 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:32 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:15 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:56 PM
. * * Decoupled? Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:37 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:58 PM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track - NO MORE vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:54 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:40 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:13 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:01 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:54 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:51 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:42 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:05 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track craigm   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:00 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:44 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:18 PM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:05 PM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:04 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:28 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:02 AM
. * * More-not what you wanted to hear danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Non Tropical model run weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:51 AM
. * * Non Tropical model run danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:37 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas nowhammies   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Haiti, Moving Toward Bahamas vineyardsaker   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:43 PM

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