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#HurricaneBeryl is now an extremely dangerous, one-of-a-kind Category 4 Hurricane and could be making a run for Cat 5 prior to landfall.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Idalia) , Major: 305 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 305 (Idalia) Major: 305 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#9 10:00 pm EDT
11.1N 56.5W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 960mb
Moving:
Wnw at 18 mph
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Td#3
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
19.7N 94.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
W at 12 mph
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Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker
      Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM

Just to add to the curious data, contrary to that which would support a northward turn - 0Z run of GFS at 18hr. ( looking at the 500mb level ), clearly shows the short wave in question over the W. Great Lakes region. At the same time, under the zonal flow, comes "Mr. Texas 500mb High" poking his head with an advancement eastward from 18hrs to 48 hours plus. From 18 hours on, the steering level flow is FROM the north in the eastern Gulf, off Key West, and around 80W just south of Cuba. This flow is maintained for a couple of days thereafter. The only component that I can see that would influence a northward motion, is the same one which has yet to bring Noel to such fruition - the 200mb level. Especially given the more shallow system now that Noel is somewhat spread out, and having spent time enjoying the delicious but weighty Arroz con Pollo from Cuba, how does one make a logical case for an immediate turn?

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Noel Over Cuba, Weaker MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker allan   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:27 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:02 PM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:35 PM
. * * CUBA current conditions danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:29 PM
. * * SE Florida current conditions danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:17 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track jessiej   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Old Sailor   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:31 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:23 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:14 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Steve H1   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:01 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:52 PM
. * * storm still moving west LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:38 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:32 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Decoupled? Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:58 AM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track - NO MORE vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:13 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:01 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track craigm   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:00 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:39 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:18 AM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:05 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:04 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:28 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:02 AM
. * * More-not what you wanted to hear danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Non Tropical model run weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Non Tropical model run danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas weathernet   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas nowhammies   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Haiti, Moving Toward Bahamas vineyardsaker   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:43 PM

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