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#HurricaneBeryl is now an extremely dangerous, one-of-a-kind Category 4 Hurricane and could be making a run for Cat 5 prior to landfall.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Idalia) , Major: 305 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 305 (Idalia) Major: 305 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2337
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker
      Wed Oct 31 2007 01:43 AM

A very nice Windsat pass from 2300Z lends a lot of credence to the 0100Z ship report of 50 knots. This ship report came in 240 km from the estimated coc, well-within NHC's 175 m northeast quad 34 knot range ring, and out of the "right" direction given the location of the report ("right," as in much more indicative of the surface cyclonic circulation than of the "Noel Nor'easter" underway).

There is a bounty of entirely believable 35-45 knot wind barbs in this scat pass, both to the north of the center, as well as to the southeast, within the stronger Caribbean inflow. The distance of the stronger winds from the actual center, along with Noel's several-day interaction with an associated ULL, suggests to me that Noel is still something of a hybrid, which also might help explain why he fared so well over Haiti and the DR.
(Windsat link)

We are in a real data void as far as recon here. It would be quite helpful if they would fly around Cuba, along the southern coast, as well. To continue flights to the north of the island is to give up the opportunity to see how much the center is or is not actually offshore, in the Caribbean, as well as to collect more wind data and get a better handle on the true max. sustained winds (not just those being affected by the High to the north).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Noel Over Cuba, Weaker MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 31 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker allan   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:27 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:02 PM
. * * Re: SE Florida current conditions cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:35 PM
. * * CUBA current conditions danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:29 PM
. * * SE Florida current conditions danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:17 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track jessiej   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Old Sailor   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:31 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:23 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:14 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Steve H1   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 04:01 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:52 PM
. * * storm still moving west LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:34 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:38 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:32 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Decoupled? LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Decoupled? Bloodstar   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 PM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track LoisCane   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:58 AM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track - NO MORE vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:13 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 11:01 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track Lamar-Plant City   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:05 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track craigm   Tue Oct 30 2007 10:00 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track allan   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 09:39 AM
. * * Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:18 AM
. * * There is an "H" in the NHC's track vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel doug   Tue Oct 30 2007 08:05 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 07:04 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel dem05   Tue Oct 30 2007 06:28 AM
. * * Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel cieldumort   Tue Oct 30 2007 05:02 AM
. * * More-not what you wanted to hear danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Non Tropical model run weathernet   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Non Tropical model run danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas scottsvb   Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas weathernet   Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas nowhammies   Mon Oct 29 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Noel Northwest of Haiti, Moving Toward Bahamas vineyardsaker   Mon Oct 29 2007 06:43 PM

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