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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Notes from satellite observations
      Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 PM

I suspect that LLC is a little too large and spinning around a little too rapidly and coming from just the too perfect starting point to not be "the real deal." Now doesn't this development toss a whole new wrench in the mix. The 11AM forecast is possibly bust, not within one hour after issuance. Should this be the case, now one of two things have to happen to make the 11 happen: A) A -brand new- LLC needs to form within a new powerful convective burst (which doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon, as pressures are now rising per latest recon data and all-too-obvious cloud top warming is underway) or B) The "real deal" LLC and the MLC and its associated now waning deep convection have to meet back up and go through the whole re-coupling process all over again. Either way, it is not nearly as probable that both the 11AM's intensity and track verify as a result.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida cieldumort   Fri Nov 02 2007 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida cieldumort   Fri Nov 02 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida scottsvb   Thu Nov 01 2007 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida sailor   Thu Nov 01 2007 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida sailor   Thu Nov 01 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida doug   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida scottsvb   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida ftlaudbob   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida Storm Hobbyist   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 01 2007 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida doug   Thu Nov 01 2007 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida - TS/Warning Hurricane Watch for Bahamas craigm   Thu Nov 01 2007 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida - TS/Warning Hurricane Watch for Bahamas weathernet   Thu Nov 01 2007 05:46 AM
. * * Re: Storm Watches and Warnings mikethewreck   Thu Nov 01 2007 05:07 AM
. * * Storm Watches and Warnings ltpat228   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Recon LoisCane   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Recon Old Sailor   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Recon Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Rainfall danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:55 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:49 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:28 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:56 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:54 PM
. * * if they get together, both centers... LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely jessiej   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Tak   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Storm Hobbyist   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Lamar-Plant City   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Stormin_thru   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:08 PM
. * * great graphicsq LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Lamar-Plant City   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations craigm   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Steve H1   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Notes from satellite observations danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic charlottefl   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:19 AM

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