Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 55 (Milton) , Major: 55 (Milton) Florida - Any: 55 (Milton) Major: 55 (Milton)

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

None

HypeScale: 0

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

National Hurricane Center

You are not logged in. [Login]

Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely
Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM

Fawning over models and defending their value in forecasting Noel's track aside for the moment, the facts on the ground are entirely challenging the NHC forecasters, giving them quite the run for the money, one can be sure. After defying the forecast of a continued NNW track so far today, and clearly running WSW, Noel has taken up nearly stationary right along the coast again (Close-up of GOES visible from NRL) . If Noel were to start heading WSW again he will be back over Cuba, once again. In fact, if his mean movement takes up any direction other than a solid NW through E course, he will be back over Cuba. A trip back over Cuba changes everything with regard to the 11AM forecast put out by NHC, not just a little bit of everything.

That paragraph being my segue into getting back to the models. I actually think the very large cyclonic envelope that has grown up around Noel to be illuminating, and something that perhaps lends a good deal more support to the outlier NAM. For several runs now, NAM has held back the bulk of Noel's abundant vorticity this side of 23N, in one fashion or another. NAM has generally taken the large and expansive cyclonic flow that is apparent with Noel, and used that, along with a not nearly as impressive shortwave approach and Noel's anticyclone aloft, to soften the blow and reduce the tugs of the approaching trough. And you know, if you look at the loops today, you really can make a case for this.

Whether or not Tropical Storm Watches and/or Warnings go up for the Keys and/or coastal south Florida, while a matter or politics and economics, is also really a matter of semantics when it comes down to a number of the effects this area continues to feel, and will likely feel, for some more time to come. A High Wind Watch, if reissued, is nothing to scoff at. Sustained winds of up to "only" 40MPH and/or gusts aoa 58, if verified, will definitely rearrange ones view.

Post Extras

Print Post

Remind Me!

Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	MikeC	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	cieldumort	Fri Nov 02 2007 05:16 AM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	cieldumort	Fri Nov 02 2007 02:28 AM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	allan	Thu Nov 01 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	allan	Thu Nov 01 2007 09:41 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	scottsvb	Thu Nov 01 2007 09:15 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	allan	Thu Nov 01 2007 08:38 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	sailor	Thu Nov 01 2007 05:34 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	sailor	Thu Nov 01 2007 01:49 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	doug	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:46 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	allan	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:45 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	Lee-Delray	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:30 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	scottsvb	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:26 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	ftlaudbob	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:13 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	Storm Hobbyist	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:09 PM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	Lee-Delray	Thu Nov 01 2007 10:56 AM
Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida	doug	Thu Nov 01 2007 10:53 AM
Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida - TS/Warning Hurricane Watch for Bahamas	craigm	Thu Nov 01 2007 07:23 AM
Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida - TS/Warning Hurricane Watch for Bahamas	weathernet	Thu Nov 01 2007 05:46 AM
Re: Storm Watches and Warnings	mikethewreck	Thu Nov 01 2007 05:07 AM
Storm Watches and Warnings	ltpat228	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:40 AM
Re: Recon	LoisCane	Thu Nov 01 2007 12:34 AM
Re: Recon	cieldumort	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:58 PM
Re: Recon	ftlaudbob	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:27 PM
Re: Recon	Storm Hunter	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:17 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:01 PM
Re: Recon	Old Sailor	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:58 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:50 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:39 PM
Re: Recon	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:31 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Rainfall	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:20 PM
Re: Recon	Storm Hunter	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:16 PM
Re: Rainfall	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:12 PM
Re: Rainfall	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:10 PM
Rainfall	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:55 PM
Re: if they get together, both centers...	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:49 PM
Re: if they get together, both centers...	cieldumort	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:41 PM
Recon	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:28 PM
Re: if they get together, both centers...	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 08:56 PM
Re: if they get together, both centers...	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 08:54 PM
if they get together, both centers...	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 PM
Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 08:37 PM
Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida	Ed Dunham	Wed Oct 31 2007 08:22 PM
Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 08:02 PM
Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida	Ed Dunham	Wed Oct 31 2007 07:48 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	jessiej	Wed Oct 31 2007 07:40 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	Tak	Wed Oct 31 2007 07:34 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 06:55 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	weathernet	Wed Oct 31 2007 05:52 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 31 2007 05:13 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 31 2007 05:01 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	Storm Hobbyist	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:56 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:53 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	Lee-Delray	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:42 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	Lee-Delray	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:37 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	ftlaudbob	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:35 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:20 PM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely	cieldumort	Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 03:45 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Oct 31 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	MikeC	Wed Oct 31 2007 03:11 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 02:59 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	ftlaudbob	Wed Oct 31 2007 02:51 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	scottsvb	Wed Oct 31 2007 02:04 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 02:03 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	scottsvb	Wed Oct 31 2007 01:21 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 01:03 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:57 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	MikeC	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:52 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Storm Hunter	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:51 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:50 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Hurricane29	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:50 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Stormin_thru	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:48 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	scottsvb	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:40 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	cieldumort	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Lee-Delray	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:08 PM
great graphicsq	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 12:05 PM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:53 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	craigm	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:47 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Storm Hunter	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:46 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	MikeC	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:34 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:33 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	Steve H1	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:07 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 11:05 AM
Re: Notes from satellite observations	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:54 AM
Notes from satellite observations	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:51 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:33 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	doug	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:28 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:22 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	danielw	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:12 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Oct 31 2007 10:11 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	LoisCane	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:58 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	Lee-Delray	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:52 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	charlottefl	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:42 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:33 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	cieldumort	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:21 AM
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic	weathernet	Wed Oct 31 2007 09:19 AM

Extra information

0 registered and 36 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:

Thread views: 67314

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center