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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean Invest 91L & Subtropical Atlantic-
      Sat Nov 03 2007 12:17 AM

Two more low pressure centers with at least some potential have formed, one of which has already hit NHC's 5:30 TWO. After having gone practically the entire month of October with little "real" development, and already starting off November with a hurricane, it would be more than interesting should one, or even both of these features develop.


-Caribbean Disturbance-
The tail end of the surface trough associated with Noel has apparently cut off and closed off in the Caribbean today, between Jamaica and Honduras. This feature is now analyzed as a 1007 mb low center along the cut-off trough. Water temperatures are fully supportive and upper-level winds are somewhat supportive for additional development. Proximity to land could be the most significant inhibitor.

-North Atlantic Non-Tropical Low may be acquiring some subtropical characteristics-
Currently centered near 40N 30W, a surface low appears to be closing off and separating from its frontal beginnings. SSTs are within a generally favorable range for subtropical cyclogenesis. Shear within a small area over the surface low is favorable, and generally becoming more favorable over a wider area. Phase diagrams as well as enhanced satellite imagery strongly suggests the potential for a rather long-lived, neutral to slightly warm-cored, symmetrical cyclone meandering out near the Azores for several days.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean Invest 91L & Subtropical Atlantic- cieldumort Sat Nov 03 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean Invest 91L & Subtropical Atlantic- cieldumort   Sat Nov 03 2007 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Weekend & week-ahead: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean & Subtropical Atlantic- allan   Sat Nov 03 2007 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Weekend & week-ahead: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean & Subtropical Atlantic- cieldumort   Sat Nov 03 2007 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Weekend & week-ahead: Areas of some interest.... -Caribbean & Subtropical Atlantic- cieldumort   Sat Nov 03 2007 07:27 AM

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