Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Winding Down
Mon Nov 05 2007 09:54 PM
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Friday, November 30th Update
Today marks the end of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This season was somewhat quieter than expected, with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Ed has a wrap-up of everyone's seasonal predictions in his latest blog entry (accessible from the main page). This season will be remembered primarily for two storms, the two category five hurricanes in Dean, which hit Mexico twice, and Felix, which hit Central America. NHC Preliminary Storm Reports for this season are slowly being released here.
We're currently in a La Nina pattern across the tropical Pacific, a pattern that is projected to maintain or slowly weaken through the winter months. Only time will tell as to what impact it will have, if any, upon the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, kicking off 184 days from today. As always, thanks for your support and many great discussions here during this season!
Monday - Nov 12, 8AM EST Update
Weak low pressure area of Invest 93L located near 11.3N 82.3W at 12/12Z drifting west northwest toward the southern coast of Nicaragua. The system is poorly organized with very little convection near the center and development seems unlikely.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located well to the south in the ITCZ near 5N 45W at 12/12Z. The wave is under westerly shear and heading for South America. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin is quiet.
ED
Original Post
Shear is on the increase across the entire Atlantic basin as this season quiets down. A couple of convective flareups in the central Atlantic along 13N - both under moderate to significant shear - nothing really expected from either one. Always the possibility of something cooking in the southwest Caribbean - but nothing is evident on the near term horizon. Non-tropical low well west of the Azores is moving south, but given the shear I don't give it much of a chance to transition. Perhaps we've reached the start of the long Quiet Time.
ED
Edited by Clark (Fri Nov 30 2007 01:15 PM)
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