cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Winding Down
Tue Nov 06 2007 03:09 AM
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Herbert-Poteat technique as applied by SAB just logged in another 2.5/2.5 as of 0545Z. However, I think that while under "normal" circumstances a CI of 2.5 would support subtropical (or tropical) storm intensity (and indeed 92L is likely blowing at or above 35 knots) the application of this technique to 92L simply does not necessarily necessitate the naming of the system yet, as it is arguably still largely a non-tropical gale, and not quite a "standard-enough" subtropical cyclone. For one, it appears to have been overly cold-cored throughout its depth.
Shear over 92L seems to be running an average of 25 knots tonight, plus or minus, which is usually a touch strong for a deeply-stacked non-tropical cyclone to have an easy transition. Higher shear to the west of the center, and lighter shear from the center - east. Convection is certainly healthier to the east. What -could- happen, given that SSTs are generally supportive of more significant subtropical and perhaps even tropical development, would be for the convection currently displaced to the east to keep firing up, further moistening up the atmosphere over the rest of the cyclone and allowing for some more efficient thunderstorm formation to occur, while maybe - and this part would be critical for any real tropical development - maybe creating high pressure aloft. If one or both of these were to happen, then I can see convection closer to, or even within the very center, improving, which would be far more likely to do the trick for 92L before the clock runs out on it.
All of those qualifiers aside, it is very interesting to note that this feature, and the environment it is in, has CIRA's Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product hitting its season peak to-date for TC formation probability in the Subtropical Atlantic. Significantly higher probabilities than when Jerry formed, even.
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