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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean
      Mon Dec 10 2007 01:17 AM

The weather pattern across Florida and the SW north ATLC will be pretty atypical for early-mid December: almost summerlike from a synoptic perspective, albeit with the much lower sun angle and cool shelf water.

Nevertheless, there will be an unusually strong deep layer mean ridge holding sway between 55W and 90W, with it's axis roughly along 28N-30N. This should send 94L generally westward and perhaps a bit south of due W over the next 3-5 days.

As far as the system's intensity is concerned, how much the system spins up will be dependent upon:

1) the evolution of the H25 low/trough with which 94L is currently interacting.
2) Potential interaction with the island of Hispanola in 2-3 days.

I think the main track issue will be how fast and to what extent the deep layer ridge breaks down in the vicinity of 75-80 west during days 4-6. The GFS had been breaking down the ridge faster and to a greater extent than the ECM, (which resulted in a faster cold frontal passage through Florida next weekend), however the last few runs of the GFS had trended decidedly toward the ECM, of which I'm usually a big fan (owing to it's generally superior handling of the H50 height fields over NOAM).

Indeed, an interesting feature to watch during the upcoming week. It has the potential to bring some much needed rain to Florida, however it also has the potential to cause some problems for the GA.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator Mon Dec 10 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola cieldumort   Sun Dec 16 2007 03:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola Storm Hunter   Sat Dec 15 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola cieldumort   Sat Dec 15 2007 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola xxflcyclonexx   Fri Dec 14 2007 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola Cat 5orBust   Fri Dec 14 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Olga loops and recurves? Clark   Thu Dec 13 2007 01:58 AM
. * * Olga loops and recurves? LoisCane   Wed Dec 12 2007 08:52 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason Lamar-Plant City   Wed Dec 12 2007 07:28 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason BillD   Wed Dec 12 2007 03:51 AM
. * * 2007 Season With NO Reason danielwAdministrator   Tue Dec 11 2007 05:28 AM
. * * SubTS Olga danielwAdministrator   Tue Dec 11 2007 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Tue Dec 11 2007 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Tue Dec 11 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Hugh   Tue Dec 11 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Tue Dec 11 2007 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Tue Dec 11 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Tue Dec 11 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Dec 10 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Mon Dec 10 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Dec 10 2007 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Mon Dec 10 2007 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Dec 10 2007 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Tony Cristaldi   Mon Dec 10 2007 01:17 AM

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