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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean
      Tue Dec 11 2007 02:45 AM

Hugh -- my guess is that it is subtropical rather than tropical due to the wind field, with the strongest winds all to the north of and somewhat removed from the center of circulation. Phase space analyses suggest it is on the cusp of tropical/subtropical, as does the storm's convection and convective organization.

A bit of history...
Since 1950, we have had just 6 storms that formed in December:
Tropical Storm #14 1953
Subtropical Storm #2 1975
Lili 1984
Odette 2003
Peter 2003
Zeta 2005

Four of those six -- ST2, Lili, Peter, and Zeta -- all formed in the subtropics from cut-off lows, largely meandering about for several days. Odette formed south-southeast of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea and moved northeast over Hispaniola, not an uncommon track for late season storms. TS #14, however, is most similar to Olga. It formed east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles on December 7th and moved due west for two days, dissipating as it neared the northern islands on December 9th. It, like Olga, likely had hybrid origins -- probably some merger of a tropical wave and cut-off low. The other analogous storm that comes to mind, albeit one from late November, is Kate from 1985. It is highly, highly unlikely that Olga takes a path (intensity or track) anywhere similar to Kate's, but they share similar genesis locations and modes.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator Tue Dec 11 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola cieldumort   Sun Dec 16 2007 03:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola Storm Hunter   Sat Dec 15 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola cieldumort   Sat Dec 15 2007 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola xxflcyclonexx   Fri Dec 14 2007 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola Cat 5orBust   Fri Dec 14 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Olga loops and recurves? Clark   Thu Dec 13 2007 01:58 AM
. * * Olga loops and recurves? LoisCane   Wed Dec 12 2007 08:52 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason Lamar-Plant City   Wed Dec 12 2007 07:28 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason BillD   Wed Dec 12 2007 03:51 AM
. * * 2007 Season With NO Reason danielwAdministrator   Tue Dec 11 2007 05:28 AM
. * * SubTS Olga danielwAdministrator   Tue Dec 11 2007 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Tue Dec 11 2007 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Tue Dec 11 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Hugh   Tue Dec 11 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Tue Dec 11 2007 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Tue Dec 11 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Tue Dec 11 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Dec 10 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Mon Dec 10 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Dec 10 2007 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Mon Dec 10 2007 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Dec 10 2007 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Tony Cristaldi   Mon Dec 10 2007 01:17 AM

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