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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#26 4:00 am EDT
19.6N 85.5W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 964mb
Moving:
W at 16 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2343
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola
      Sat Dec 15 2007 03:00 AM

Olga has held together extremely well, given the environment and track over some pretty high mountains. Several scatterometer passes still reveal a very well-developed surface circulation. Area buoy and ship reports suggest that her pressure is still down around 1006mb.. and that might even be conservative.

The air about Olga is a little less dry now, and shear perhaps a touch less hostile. Getting picked up by the approaching mid-latitude system now triggering lines of strong thunderstorms in east Texas looks plausible. Should Olga hook a hard right and go with the flow, net effective shear may be a little less than what is dogging her now. Furthermore, she would have a brief stint over waters marginally favorable for some more convective flares.

If Olga puts together a few solid hours of deep convection about her center, I can see a situation where advisories are restarted for Tropical Storm Olga. Winds associated with her "remnant" circulation are already blowing up to 40+ knots tonight.

Some nearby ship reports:
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD (KTS)
SHIP S 0700 22.30 -85.70 130 34 100 35.0
SHIP S 0600 20.20 -84.70 131 98 160 25.1
SHIP S 0200 21.30 -86.40 59 35 360 42.7

This is not any kind of ringing endorsement for regeneration, however. Any reconstituting of Olga is likely to be contained by generally poor conditions: the lower SSTs & moderate to high wind shear, being at the top of that list, methinks. Maybe 1 in 3 odds of pulling off a last-ditch surprise, given her tenacity. December tropical cyclones, you know...

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator Sat Dec 15 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola cieldumort   Sat Dec 15 2007 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola Storm Hunter   Sat Dec 15 2007 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola cieldumort   Sat Dec 15 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola xxflcyclonexx   Fri Dec 14 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Olga Moving Over Hispaniola Cat 5orBust   Fri Dec 14 2007 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Olga loops and recurves? Clark   Wed Dec 12 2007 08:58 PM
. * * Olga loops and recurves? LoisCane   Wed Dec 12 2007 03:52 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason Lamar-Plant City   Wed Dec 12 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Season With NO Reason BillD   Tue Dec 11 2007 10:51 PM
. * * 2007 Season With NO Reason danielwAdministrator   Tue Dec 11 2007 12:28 AM
. * * SubTS Olga danielwAdministrator   Mon Dec 10 2007 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Dec 10 2007 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Mon Dec 10 2007 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Hugh   Mon Dec 10 2007 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Mon Dec 10 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Mon Dec 10 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Mon Dec 10 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Mon Dec 10 2007 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Mon Dec 10 2007 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Dec 10 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Clark   Sun Dec 09 2007 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean cieldumort   Sun Dec 09 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Post Season... Watch Disturbance Northeast of the Caribbean Tony Cristaldi   Sun Dec 09 2007 08:17 PM

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