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Likely to become a hurricane later today and may undergo Rapid Intensification heading into landfall. Time to rush preps to completion and shelter. #Beryl #TXWX

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 312 (Idalia) , Major: 312 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 312 (Idalia) Major: 312 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2348
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: one last hybrid
Fri Dec 28 2007 03:36 PM

The feature HF and Allan have both now referred to is clearly "getting there" - it's a little surprising that an Invest tag isn't already up on this one. Up until this morning it appeared to be in the process of establishing a cold front, but since then it has taken on much less of a frontal appearance, and more of a classic symmetrical one. Phase diagrams have suggested that by tomorrow it may have become at least marginally warm-cored. What it has in symmetry however, it still lacks in convection, especially near and within the center, so that forecast might be a little bullish, at least initially.

As far as its future is concerned, it now appears to be heading westward, and staying far-enough south to continue traveling over SSTs in the 23-24+ C range. In some ways it is a little like pre-Olga, but with more frontal beginnings. 12Z runs nearly unanimously send it WSW or SW and weaken it substantially by next Wednesday, while over 25-26C waters, but unsurprisingly the CMC pretty much makes it a tropical storm, and keeps it heading west over the 23-25C range.

TAFB only had this to say about it at 1PM today

A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 26N38W
TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A ROPE CLOUD DEFINES THIS
TROUGH ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC
SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/281750.shtml?

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Olga Remnants Approaching Florida	MikeC	Fri Dec 28 2007 03:36 PM
Re: One Last storm?	Rich B	Sat Dec 29 2007 05:42 AM
Re: One Last storm?	cieldumort	Sat Dec 29 2007 01:27 AM
Re: One Last storm?	danielw	Sat Dec 29 2007 01:20 AM
One Last storm?	danielw	Sat Dec 29 2007 01:03 AM
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida	Ed Dunham	Fri Dec 28 2007 10:54 PM
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida	cieldumort	Fri Dec 28 2007 08:39 PM
Re: one last hybrid	Ed Dunham	Fri Dec 28 2007 03:37 PM
Re: one last hybrid	cieldumort	Fri Dec 28 2007 03:36 PM
Re: one last hybrid	allan	Fri Dec 28 2007 09:56 AM
one last hybrid	HanKFranK	Tue Dec 25 2007 09:42 PM
Re: Olga Remnants Approaching Florida	allan	Sun Dec 16 2007 01:35 AM

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