SST outlooks for ENSO region 3.4 continue to suggest a rather strong La Nina persisting through October. The average May/June/July anomaly is expected to be about -1.3C - which is a bit stronger than the previous projection of -1.0C. This would put 2008 on par with 1988 as one of the strongest pre-season (M/J/J) La Nina events ever recorded.
SST forecasts for July/August/September continue to anticipate a strong La Nina of at least -1.0C with Atlantic SSTs running slightly below normal during this same period for the entire north Atlantic tropical basin - except for a slightly above normal area off the west coast of Africa. A high activity season (14 or more named storms) would be a most unusual event under these conditions.
The analog years have been adjusted a bit, but not much. In order of precedence the best analog years seem to be:
No change from my earlier forecast of 12/7/3. Also no change in my previously anticipated threat areas.
I'll keep this thread open through May 31st for those of you who might still wish to include or revise your own forecasts for the 2008 season. Include your rational if you wish, however it is not required. Cheers, ED
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Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season
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