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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Something to Ponder
      Mon Apr 07 2008 01:14 AM

Note that your post was moved because the seasonal prediction thread in the Storm Forum is limited to forecasts only.

A high storm total (14 or more) under strong La Nina pre-season conditions (May/June/July) would be unusual because it has never happened before since reliable SST records have been available (1950).

Regarding landfall, there have been 11 seasons with an average July/August/September ENSO Region 3.4 SST anomaly of -0.8C or stronger. A review of those 11 seasons showed a landfall in Texas and North Carolina 45% of the time, and a landfall rate of 64% for Florida and Louisiana. The 11 seasons were 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1998 and 1999. Every season had at least one tropical cyclone landfall (TS strength or greater) in the United States. The 11 seasons had a combined total of 26 hurricane landfalls and 17 tropical storm landfalls. If a strong La Nina remains in place through September (as currently forecasted), the probability of a hurricane landfall AND a tropical storm landfall in the U.S. this season is slightly greater than 90%.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29 Mon Apr 07 2008 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Second Tropical Wave of Season sdgsd   Wed May 07 2008 07:37 PM
. * * Something to Ponder Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Apr 07 2008 01:14 AM

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