danielw
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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ENSO Update
Thu Apr 24 2008 12:44 AM
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Ed has posted an update to the ENSO forecast in the Storm Forum.
His current analog year, if I read it right, would be 1985.
He lists 1985 as "quite similar to the current and expected pattern". With 1974,2000,1971,1950, and 1989 following respectively.
(Ed, I hope I got that last sentence right.)
Here are the quick run downs of what happened in 1985. More information is available at the NHC/ TPC website.
Ana-Near Bermuda and Sable Island
Bob- Naples/ Ft Myers to Vero Beach,Fl with landfall near Beaufort,SC
Claudette-Formed near the Mouth of the MS River. Moved east to SE GA Coast, near Cape Hatteras, Bermuda and near the Azores Islands.
Danny-Tropical Wave off of Africa, to near Grand Cayman Islands, to SE GOM, 24hr Intensification to Hurricane, with landfall near Cameron, LA
Elena-Cape Verde wave, 30 knots forward speed to Cuba to SE GOM, toward the NW-then East to the FL Big Bend area, back toward the WNW with landfall near Biloxi,MS. Labor Day weekend Headache of a storm.
At one time or another the Coast from Morgan City,LA to Sarasota,Fl was under a Hurricane Warning. Hence the "Headache Storm".
Fabian-Formed 300 nm South of San Juan,PR. Moved ENE into North Atlantic.
Gloria-Cape Verde Is. to Leeward Is. to the Bahamas to Outer Banks,NC to Western Long Is. NY
Henri-Formed NE of the Bahamas and moved NNE on a track similar to Gloria.
Isabel-Cape Verde wave. From N of Hispaniola to landfall near Savannah,GA.
Juan-Formed in Central GOM in late October.Landfall near Morgan City,LA to Mouth of the MS River to 2nd landfall east of Pensacola,FL
Kate-Mid November storm formed near Virgin Is., to near the SE Bahamas, to near Havana,Cuba, to a landfall near Mexico Beach, FL
Again... this is a quick summation of the NHC tracks from their Archives. At some point during 1985 a Tropical system was threatening the U.S. from the upper Texas Coast to Long Island,N.Y.
Now that's a lot of real estate!! 
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