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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
Sat May 24 2008 02:40 PM

As Ed pointed out, there have been some recent grumblings in the ECMWF, GFS and CMC global numerical forecast models. HPC has picked up on this and felt it warranted a mention in their middle-extended range forecast discussion:

TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE GFS. CMC ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A GFS
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

I have found that the experimental Roundy cyclone probabilities product found here can be quite useful in determining at least favorable regions for development at extended leads. Currently, the product indicates that unfortunately for Berma, that region of the west and northwest Indian coast is dramatically coming into a favorable regime. The product also indicates that regions of the eastern Pacific are in a burgeoning region of potential development, too. Although this is not extended into the Caribbean, it is however close enough to the region, that combined with these operational global model signals, raises an eyebrow or two - particularly considering that nearing and going into June is also climatologically favored in this area and up throughout the Gulf.

...So, this is something to at least keep an eye on in future model runs.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat May 24 2008 02:47 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	MikeC	Sat May 24 2008 02:40 PM
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up	LoisCane	Thu May 29 2008 01:25 PM
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up	MichaelA	Thu May 29 2008 12:34 PM
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up	doug	Thu May 29 2008 12:29 PM
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up	cieldumort	Thu May 29 2008 12:11 PM
clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up	LoisCane	Thu May 29 2008 11:52 AM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	hofloka	Thu May 29 2008 11:16 AM
Tropical Depression 1E Now Tropical Storm Alma	cchsweatherman	Thu May 29 2008 08:53 AM
Re: TD 01E	punkyg	Thu May 29 2008 07:57 AM
Re: TD 01E	cieldumort	Thu May 29 2008 05:36 AM
Re: TD 01E	scottsvb	Thu May 29 2008 12:56 AM
Re: TD 01E	dem05	Thu May 29 2008 12:03 AM
Re: TD 01E	danielw	Thu May 29 2008 12:01 AM
Re: TD 01E	Clark	Wed May 28 2008 11:30 PM
Re: TD 01E	HanKFranK	Wed May 28 2008 10:16 PM
Re: TD 01E	dem05	Wed May 28 2008 10:06 PM
Re: TD 01E	dem05	Wed May 28 2008 09:51 PM
Re: TD 01E	Hugh	Wed May 28 2008 09:50 PM
TD 01E	cieldumort	Wed May 28 2008 09:24 PM
Re: Invest 90E	cieldumort	Wed May 28 2008 08:54 PM
Re: Invest 90E	dem05	Wed May 28 2008 08:29 PM
Re: Invest 90E	HurricaneKid	Wed May 28 2008 08:09 PM
Re: Invest 90E	cieldumort	Wed May 28 2008 07:48 PM
Re: Invest 90E	dem05	Wed May 28 2008 05:43 PM
Re: Invest 90E	scottsvb	Wed May 28 2008 02:45 PM
Re: Invest 90E	Storm Hunter	Wed May 28 2008 02:24 PM
Re: Invest 90E	Maitland, FL	Wed May 28 2008 11:37 AM
Re: Invest 90E	rmbjoe1954	Wed May 28 2008 09:16 AM
Re: Invest 90E	cieldumort	Wed May 28 2008 03:19 AM
Re: Invest 90E	danielw	Wed May 28 2008 12:02 AM
Re: Invest 90E	dem05	Tue May 27 2008 11:03 PM
Re: Invest 90E	Storm Hunter	Tue May 27 2008 09:26 PM
Re: Invest 90E	rmbjoe1954	Tue May 27 2008 04:26 PM
Invest 90E	cchsweatherman	Tue May 27 2008 02:51 PM
Re: this week	C.A.	Tue May 27 2008 11:34 AM
Re: this week	scottsvb	Mon May 26 2008 02:45 PM
this week	Storm Hunter	Mon May 26 2008 01:40 PM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	weatherguy08	Mon May 26 2008 01:01 PM
Re: this weeks tropics	scottsvb	Mon May 26 2008 01:54 AM
this weeks tropics	Storm Hunter	Mon May 26 2008 01:09 AM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	Storm Hunter	Sun May 25 2008 11:53 AM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	typhoon_tip	Sat May 24 2008 02:40 PM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	craigm	Fri May 23 2008 07:23 PM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	allan	Fri May 23 2008 05:42 PM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	scottsvb	Fri May 23 2008 03:00 AM
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season	dem05	Fri May 23 2008 01:06 AM

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