dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: Invest 90E
Wed May 28 2008 03:03 AM
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That transitional time of year, which happens every year around the begining of Hurricane Season is definately upon us. Lots of various weather patterns involving the late weather of spring and the early weather of summer are definately ongoing. In sum, that means that the overall weather picture is not very straightforward. I give kudos to the GFS for consistently picking up on the development of a monsoon trough for days now (an area of disturbed weather and lower pressures across the SW Caribbean and Eastern Pacific) . It is not typical to see that long range consistancy, and certainly not typical to see a phantom like weather pattern to evolve on queue in the tropics. This may be a fluke, or the annual adjustments in the GFS are paying off....Time will tell, but it is encourqaging to see that the GFS picked up on the genesis of the monsoon trough (albiet the final outcome of that trough has been all over the map).
Overall, what we do see right now is a monsoon trough across the eastern Pacific and the Southwest Caribbean. With a broad gyre of converging winds surrounding this region. Embedded are no "closed" lows, but several areas of minimum low pressure such as 90E. This trough is not that untypical for this time of year. However, it usually is aligned from east to west from the E. Pac into South America. When this trough is lifted northward into the SW Caribbean, that area is not a bad spot to watch, but it is not a guaranteed area development either. Likewise, until the area becomes more consolidated, development cannot really be predicted with any accuracy in the E. Pac or the Caribb.
However, I like Storm 7's comments on wave activity traversing South America. I can see where he is coming from and he may be on to something here. Likewise, the Pacific activity along the trough seems to be riding in a more of a Northeasterly fashion toward Panama and maybe the SW Caribbean. In conclusion, these types of activity may lead to a "pilling up" of weather, which may lead to a focused area for development along the trough. Mother Nature will say who's boss, but the SW Caribbean probably has a slightly better shot of being an area for consolidation of this Monsoon trough based on the current. However, 100 or 200 miles of error means a big difference (No Development due to Central America or an E. Pac. development). Bottom line, something may still perk in the SW. Caribbean in the coming days, nothing may happen due to land interaction with central america, or at lower odds...something may pop up on the Pacific side. One possibility that I do dismiss under this weather pattern is the possibility of a storm on both sides of Central America. Real estate plus the dynamics should prohibit that.
On the lighter side...I believe most posters here will agree...My only "wishcast" for the summer...Please let it rain in Florida! :-)
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