cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Invest 90L Intensifying
Sat May 31 2008 04:45 AM
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Possibly somewhat to the chagrin of a few forecasters, tonight Invest 90L has remained virtually stationary for the past several hours, IVO 17N 87W, and as such, rather than increase its interaction with land, it has increased its interaction with warm Caribbean waters.
It is very noteworthy to also point out that the upper-level anticyclone which was very favorably situated over 90E/Alma, has shifted eastward almost in some unison with that former tropical storm, and is now placed just about very favorably atop Invest 90L.
Over the course of the night so far, NRL has bumped 90L from 1006 mb and 25 knots to 1005 mb and 30 knots.
Over the course of the last three hours, deep convective banding is bursting out just to the east of the LLCC, with some filling in attempting to take place just to the center's west, as well, despite being impeded by some interaction with the Yucatan.
Finally, a recent ship report just came in that is certainly eye-catching:
SHIP 0300 UTC 18.80N 86.10W East wind at 44.1 knots
Pressure 29.80 and rising by 0.06
air temp 78.8 water temp 80.6
If verified, that's a 51 mph wind probably at about mast-level. The fact that the pressure had been rising suggests that the ship may have been traveling away from the center of lowest pressure and/or (and I suspect more likely) both that -and- higher pressure is pinching from the north/northeast, creating a potent gradient zone in the NE quad.
We've seen situations similar to this before that sometimes, when combined with continued improvements in the convection and internals, it is all that is required to force the hands of an upgrade. (Torrential downpours and gale-force winds from a tropical low so close to land and all.. even if it isn't completely, undeniably, 100% "there," at that exact point in time.)
I'll have to edit those earlier remarks, as a helpful 0245 UTC ASCAT pass along with the most recent three frames of various sat loops suggest that this most recent burst of convection looks to have possibly bowled the whole mess westward... based on all of this, the best I can tell now is what could be the primary LLC is now just offshore of Belize and still rolling generally west at the moment.
Edited by cieldumort (Sat May 31 2008 06:43 AM)
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