Well, just to throw in my 2 pesos worth....; I cannot help but believe that if we had the same data, along with the same sat. presentation, AND if we were to re-insert this same system 400 miles ESE of the Virgin Islands in mid August...., that we'd be at extreme minimum be calling this a tropical depression. It is for that reason that I try to avoid the theoretical ( or more correctly "political" ) discussion as to what we are actually looking at. I do believe that at minimum there is more than ample arguement to classify this as a tropical depression. That said, than comes the added debate many have already considered as to whether or not this is Alma, or simply "the son of Alma". Once again, no one can argue that it is of the same "envelope" system. Less definitive may be whether or not from a unique vorticity center from a different trop. wave or not. Even that though, is less currious to me as to if the current system has one center or possibly two.
As the center was initialized over Belize this morning at 12Z, I can't help but wonder if that center may be filling given the fact of being over land, and if a mid level center in the envelope's NE quadrant might be attempting to work its way down to the center around 18.5 and 87.5. Even if a new center were to attempt to form under the convection here or elsewhere in the eastern semicircle, the only ultimate difference in an overall westward motion of the system, might be "if" a more northward relocation of a center would permit the system to maintain, deepen, and finally get tagged with a name ( whatever it would be ). I suppose one other less likely but possible scenario could play out, which would be for a for a storm to form out of a mid level center as discussed above, but to somehow just be far enough to the east to not be caught under a building ridge over northern Mexico, and to be more or less caught in a COL, and more or less sit and spin in the NW Carib.
No answers here, but fun to watch as our Atlantic Season officially starts in 12 hours.
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