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I have a general question here for those with knowledge. Meteorologically, if that is the correct spelling, how are the tropics, i.e. the Caribbean, ITCZ, Atlantic, setting up this year compared to the active years of 2004, 2005. I do not believe that the formation of Arthur(Alma) is an indication one way or the other of an active season, but I am curious to see if the elements are appearing that may indicate a more robust season. Thank's
Interesting to watch Arthur evolve ( or spin down ), along with all the associated meteorological debates on names, origin, and future motion. Dem, I too had thought Arthur had that look of trying to possibly "spin down" a new center from a mid level, on its east quadrant, but looking at the overall large envelope system that it is, am leaning more towards the likelihood of the overall system spinning down while over land, and eventually late today/tonight whatever convection over the W. Carib. to finally fall off as convergent inflow from the weekening LLC decreases. At this point, will defer to this forum's moderator discretion ( in keeping this post reply here or to moved to another forum ). Does Arthur's early emergence and/or the current atmospheric conditions indicate what this season may be to come?
With regards to the question posed as to what indication that this early named storm, along with the current overall conditions or appearance of the ITCZ, SST's, Surface Pressures, Upper Air, etc., this is what I too am more curious about. I tend to pay attention to the origin, motion, size, of early systems as kind of a "read" on the upcoming Hurricane Season. To me, early Sub tropical systems ( baroclinic or cut off lows ) indicate seasons with less "true tropical systems" or greater "weaker" storms. Arthur was certainly NOT this, and though weak due to land proximity, certainly tropical in nature. Does Alma's far Eastern Pacific origin ( or Arthur's Carib. emergence ) pertend to the overall W. Atlantic long wave pattern, thus better tipping our hand if or where latter storms are likely to form or recurve? For me, not enough to draw on, but I will extend this thought............. Arthur was a W. Carib. system. Origins and tracks of Atlantic tropical systems seem to occur in one or several "clusters". Contrary to last year, active Caribbean years often do not bode well for the Gulf States. My own assumpion is that we will certainly see additional tropical cyclone activity in the Central and Western Caribbean, and that some area of coastline between Florida and Texas is certain to be affected. I'm not willing to even speculate yet, if affected mean weak tropical systems droping copious amounts of rain, or one or more major hurricanes - still too early to tell.
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
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