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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season
      Tue Jun 03 2008 07:18 PM

There are some interesting evolutions/changes of note across the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Camp. this evening.

First and foremost, there is evidence that the strong ridge is finally loosing its grip ove the Gulf. This can be noted in the visible imagery today. The flow over the western Gulf in particulary has been shifting into a southwesterly flow and now at almost a southerly flow.

Link (visible): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Link (Shortwave. Not as good as the visible right now, but will surfice during nightime hours): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Next, the change in flow out of the southwest and south, plus the northerly progression of the bent out of shape 91L should help to build the air moisture around the BOC and southern Gulf with time. Also, there is evidence that an Upper Low is evolving in Mexico (give or take coordinates of around 19N, 97.5W)

Link (Water Vapor): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Of course, how could we not forget about the remenants of Arthur? His broad/weak gyre has made it to the Bay of Campeechee now as can be referenced in the visible loops...even staring to show some gain some latitude now. Introduce his remenants, plus a little moisture support from old 91L and the kick may be there to spawn some redevelopment...Just something to watch for now, but overall, the pattern in the Gulf is changing.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jun 03 2008 07:18 PM
. * * campeche, east atlantic HanKFranK   Tue Jun 03 2008 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season allan   Tue Jun 03 2008 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season JoshuaK   Tue Jun 03 2008 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season dem05   Tue Jun 03 2008 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season Kaity FL Lady   Tue Jun 03 2008 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season MichaelA   Tue Jun 03 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season pschex   Tue Jun 03 2008 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season Rich B   Tue Jun 03 2008 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season doug   Tue Jun 03 2008 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season rmbjoe1954   Tue Jun 03 2008 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season scottsvb   Tue Jun 03 2008 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season doug   Tue Jun 03 2008 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Hurricane29   Mon Jun 02 2008 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Rich B   Mon Jun 02 2008 05:09 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 02 2008 03:19 PM
. * * Spawn or Sibling of Alma & Arthur could disrupt ATL development cieldumort   Mon Jun 02 2008 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Centre on Vis imagery JoshuaK   Mon Jun 02 2008 02:25 PM
. * * Centre on Vis imagery Rich B   Mon Jun 02 2008 01:15 PM
. * * Re: water vapor loop JoshuaK   Mon Jun 02 2008 12:49 PM
. * * Re: water vapor loop craigm   Mon Jun 02 2008 12:32 PM
. * * Re: water vapor loop LoisCane   Mon Jun 02 2008 12:28 PM
. * * Re: new spin in E Pac doug   Mon Jun 02 2008 12:15 PM
. * * Re: water vapor loop Old Sailor   Mon Jun 02 2008 11:59 AM
. * * Re: water vapor loop craigm   Mon Jun 02 2008 11:49 AM
. * * Re: water vapor loop Old Sailor   Mon Jun 02 2008 10:23 AM
. * * Re: water vapor loop craigm   Mon Jun 02 2008 09:45 AM
. * * Re: water vapor loop Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 02 2008 01:41 AM
. * * water vapor loop LoisCane   Mon Jun 02 2008 12:09 AM
. * * Re: hanging around the yucatan RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Jun 01 2008 11:25 PM
. * * Re: hanging around the yucatan weathernet   Sun Jun 01 2008 09:29 PM
. * * hanging around the yucatan HanKFranK   Sun Jun 01 2008 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season LoisCane   Sun Jun 01 2008 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season scottsvb   Sun Jun 01 2008 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season weathernet   Sun Jun 01 2008 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season Hugh   Sun Jun 01 2008 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season craigm   Sun Jun 01 2008 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season flanewscameraman   Sun Jun 01 2008 07:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season dem05   Sun Jun 01 2008 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season dem05   Sun Jun 01 2008 04:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season LoisCane   Sun Jun 01 2008 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season weatherguy08   Sat May 31 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season DarleneCane   Sat May 31 2008 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season weatherguy08   Sat May 31 2008 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season Storm Hunter   Sat May 31 2008 05:31 PM

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