Yes, this wave out and just east of the Windwards is a little lost, given the time of year, however is going through a nice convective spurt this afternoon. Granted, that it may well be the shear itself that is helping to flare up the convection, but I too think that the shear might be a little less than in previous days. Moreso, it looked to me based on earlier run of the 6Z GFS - 200mb, that the upper air was definately relaxing with time, and that about 48 hours, was 5-10 knots in the E. Central Caribbean. Curiously, the energy with this wave was forecast by the GFS models to pretty much get pulled up and to the north at, or just east of the Lessor Antilles. Considering that this is a shallow system at best, I would assume that the steering would be more at the 850mb to surface levels, and I would assume that an overall west to WNW motion to simply continue. If this wave continues to mainain a decent signiture, and in fact work its way into the E. Caribbean, than perhaps it can sustain a bursting pattern for a couple of days, and then upper air could be conducive for further development.
Talk about a weird year............., imagine a second storm of the season, in early June, deepening in the Eastern Caribbean of all places?? Not exactly textbook, especially given the typical void that S. America usually creates out of the far E. Caribbean. Some of the systems that have deepened while in the Eastern Caribbean, have been nasty little buggers, over the years.
Probably little to worry about, but is interesting to see the few early healthy Atlantic tropical waves thus far.
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Re: Area of Interest - East of Southern Windward Islands
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