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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#8 9:00 am EDT
17.8N 78.6W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 994mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics
      Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM

The odds of a weak, baroclinically induced type tropical system in the Gulf does not seem very likely right now, but there are interesting features to observe just in case.

If development were to occur, the window for this environment is very small, and I would say it would be north of the Yucatan Pannisula (or eastward) and south of 25N.

Here's the pro side: This is the area that may be seeing the greatest convergence and there has been ample moisture for the last few days. Also, I notice on the shortwave that the low level cloud pattern approaching the Yucatan. There seems to be that classic piling of winds and a signature wind shift on approach to the Yucatan. Note that the low level clounds move quickly to the west across the Caribbean then arc northward and even kink a bit the the NE. Also notice that the cloud motion slows quickly on final approach to the extreme western Cribb. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

The con side: Upper level dynamics...Often, there is a change in such circumastance for weak to moderate lopsided development in the eastern of east central Gulf when there is a cutoff low somewhere around 95W in the Gulf of Mexico. This such area does exist tonight, but here is the caveat. It has to stay there...and it does not seem to be doing that. In fact, it is now gaining on 90W. A digging trough moved across Texas and the ULL appears to be moving E-ENE. This limits any window and probably eliminates the chance for any organization of a surface type feature that is tropical in nature. Likewise, there has been no persistent-deep thunderstom activity of note anywhere in the Gulf.

At this time, I believe Florida will get an additional moisture punch. However, speculation of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be an impossiblitiy at this time. Enjoy the rains, Florida...After all, it is drought catch up time and we have a nice moisture feed...

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Still Quiet in the Tropics MikeCAdministrator Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L- July 1 Steve H1   Tue Jul 01 2008 02:15 PM
. * * Invest 92L- July 1 danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 01 2008 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics tropics   Tue Jul 01 2008 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 30 2008 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 30 2008 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics LoisCane   Mon Jun 30 2008 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 30 2008 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics allan   Mon Jun 30 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics DarleneCane   Sat Jun 28 2008 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics cieldumort   Sat Jun 28 2008 03:59 AM
. * * Re: GOM SSTs Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 26 2008 01:38 PM
. * * Re: GOM SSTs danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 25 2008 12:43 PM
. * * Re: GOM SSTs Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 24 2008 09:06 PM
. * * Re: GOM SSTs islandtime   Tue Jun 24 2008 04:39 PM
. * * Re: GOM SSTs lawgator1   Tue Jun 24 2008 03:20 PM
. * * GOM SSTs danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 23 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics scottsvb   Mon Jun 23 2008 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics Beach   Mon Jun 23 2008 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics scottsvb   Mon Jun 23 2008 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics cieldumort   Mon Jun 23 2008 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics dem05   Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Bay of Campeche Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 22 2008 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 22 2008 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics Hurricane29   Sun Jun 22 2008 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 21 2008 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 21 2008 01:07 PM

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