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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ??
      Thu Jun 26 2008 03:31 AM

Delightful post.

It's abundantly clear tonight that Invest 94E (as tracked by NRL, but not as currently tracked by SSD) is right on the cusp. That there hasn't been a TCFA hoisted up on it already probably has more to do with timing, than with qualification.

This recent AMSUB Color Composite betrays a rather healthy incipient cyclone. Might take a while to see if it gets a name, or not, tho. It's still a bit caught in the clutches of the ITCZ, just yet.

The description of the MJO as "incoherent" interests me. Seems as good a description as any. The past several days I have been thinking of it as "fractured." Not sure just what this means, other than I think it could be deduced that convective activity might tend to break out just about anywhere, or anywhere that one of these "fractures" happens to be at any given moment... but also that such a convective push might be fleeting, and so perhaps not tenacious enough to allow for some of the would-be cyclones to percolate to fruition.

I wonder how long this phase lasts.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ?? CoconutCandy Thu Jun 26 2008 03:31 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jun 26 2008 11:12 AM
. * * Impressive, Colorful QuikScat View of 94E CoconutCandy   Thu Jun 26 2008 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ?? cieldumort   Thu Jun 26 2008 03:31 AM
. * * Cyclogenesis Now Underway / 2 Peas in a Pod CoconutCandy   Thu Jun 26 2008 03:33 PM
. * * Cyclogenesis Now Well Underway CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 27 2008 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Cyclogenesis Now Well Underway cieldumort   Fri Jun 27 2008 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ?? cieldumort   Thu Jun 26 2008 03:51 AM

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