HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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More Interesting Times
Thu Jun 26 2008 08:05 PM
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We may be seeing more of interest in the Atlantic basin in the coming weeks. Since things quickly returned to high shear/strong trades for much of June after Arthur went away, there hasn't been much to fascinate over or wonder about, really. However, we seem to be getting ready for one of those MJO-induced gear shifts. Activity in the Western Pacific (Fengshen) has preceded what looks like an attempt at development on the Eastern Pacific side... two invests out there and both have a decent chance of spinning up (although they should be short lived, since they are close to the cold/stable layer west of the Baja). GFS, which did a fair job with Alma/Arthur at the end of May has been consistently pointing to an African wave due to debut around June 30th. It shows ridiculously fast development near the Cape Verdes during the first week of July and tracks the 'system' west-northwest on a mid-Atlantic recurvature path, although the low pressure itself is shown washing out at the end of the 6-hr interval resolution period. None of the other models are the slightest bit interested, but GFS has been showing the same system doing the same thing again and again. Consistency like that is not to be ignored, although we aren't quite there yet in terms of taking it completely seriously. I seriously doubt that a tropical storm will pass the Cape Verdes around July 2nd, as shown by the GFS, but don't have as much of a problem envisioning such a system developing slowly and staying on a much more southerly course. The GFS does show an upper anticyclone moving westward in tandem with the feature... more cause to believe there may be something to it. If none of the other models have bought into this thing by Saturday, expect it to be a total wash in terms of development. However, that doesn't preclude the next couple of weeks being a period with enhancing rising motion in the Atlantic Basin and a higher than average tendency for development. I.e. frontal tails and any trough splitting further north are really a more climatologically likely source for action, so keep a watch for such things.
HF 0105z27june
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