cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Invest 92L forms southeast of CVs. ATL entering an early Cape Verde mode?
Tue Jul 01 2008 06:04 PM
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I respectfully disagree with these assessments.
I'll explain why in a point by point refutation
On whether or not the wave merits an Invest tag -
"92L" is not merely some marginal open wave. It has had a weak, but very persistent Low fully associated with it while it crossed Africa, and now as it hit the open water.
In addition, while the convection is scattered and lacking in organization, there are already hints that upon hitting water the deepest convection was occurring within the heart of it.
Anticyclonic outflow - 92L already has some. Nothing like what one would expect to see for a tropical storm, but fairly impressive outflow for a Low that just popped out over water.
SSTs are actually plenty supportive in the extreme eastern Atlantic.. running a full 1.5 to 2.5 degrees C above average for more than a sufficient stretch of open ocean. Even where the anomaly drops off, the 26.5 isotherm covers plenty of area, so long as the system doesn't end too far north too soon.
Model support - When is the last time you saw a wave drop off the coast of Africa with this kind of model support from so many runs? Even if almost none of the above-listed features were not all present at once, this had to raise more than a few eyebrows over at the NHC.
The SHIPS forecast of an 82knot hurricane within a highly-sheared environment brings up two points in my mind. First, in order for "92L" to follow the consensus track and be in that location at 96 hours, it would likely have to be a developed system to pull that far right so soon. Indeed, whatever the shear may or may not be at that location at that time is irrelevant to the question of whether or not a numbered tropical cyclone already has formed. Hypothetically-speaking, so it develops and hits a mean wall of shear. So SHIPS is a little out to lunch on its intensity at that point.. we would still be looking at a numbered TC.
OTOH, if "92" does not organize more, or organize fast enough, this expected turn may not materialize, which would then put a strong, but undeveloped wave in a nook of some pretty darn conducive environment in about 72-96 hours. Bingo-bango! We may very well have a numbered TC, anyway.. and in fact, one which may start to be of more interest than an early fish spinner.
Given all of the above and more, IMHO, NHC has done the right thing by bringing attention to this feature so soon. As for "Investigating" it, there are at least plenty of ships, a few planes, and certainly some buoys and several land stations in and around the CVs. While they aren't going to task the 53rd anytime soon for 92L, perhaps some of their other resources and alliances will be tapped, if conditions warrant.
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