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Tonight "the calm before the storm" and time to finish preps. Even now, high precipitable water and instability values ahead of Beryl are triggering flash flood threats with rainfall rates up to over 3"/Hr #Beryl #TXWX

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 312 (Idalia) , Major: 312 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 312 (Idalia) Major: 312 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser

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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida

Re: Bertha's destiny - any threat to the U.S.?
Sun Jul 06 2008 12:20 AM

All I can add here is that most of the models don't jive well because one part rings true but the other part doesn't.

Ukmet has a weak storm in an area where she should finally thrive due to very warm water. If part of the forecast makes no sense you have to question the forecast despite the fact that the Ukmet has worked well so far with this storm.

I still don't see how this storm barrels into a strong high and I don't see the weakness at 60 being so weak.

And, I keep thinking on this comment "allowing subtropical ridge expansion, not decay. "

Too iffy to say without a large shadow of a doubt that Bertha couldn't get trapped under a strong ridge or shoved west by a building one ala Dora or even like a few other storms that have ended up between the border of the Carolinas before re-curving finally out to sea.

Fronts often go flat just when you need them yet help draw a storm in without carrying it off to sea.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Bertha's destiny - any threat to the U.S.?	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 06 2008 12:20 AM
Re: Bertha's destiny - any threat to the U.S.?	LoisCane	Sun Jul 06 2008 12:20 AM

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