TS Bertha - A Reality Check

Something is out of kilter with regard to the current intensity forecast (and therefore its influence on the track forecast) of Tropical Storm Bertha. The current projection places Bertha near 22.5N 60.5W at 09/12Z with sustained winds at that time of 70 knots. Upper level wind shear is projected to be 20-25 knots at that time for that location. While it is true that SSTs will be increasing to at least 27C in that area, the upgrade in sustained wind is difficult to envision in light of the wind shear. Two normally reliable models, the UKMET and the GFS (at least rather reliable with stronger systems), decrease the intensity of Bertha and ultimately lose the system - the UKMET in three days and the GFS in four) - and they have been indicating this decline for a couple of days.

The upcoming shear zone is rather narrow, so any disruption of Bertha could be short-lived - if it survives it. Both the track and the intensity beyond the next couple of days are very much uncertain at this time. Its way too early to postulate on mainland impacts since a week from now Bertha may not even exist. By late Monday (or even Tuesday) the longer range evolution of Bertha should become a little easier to forecast with a better degree of reliability.
ED

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