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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 310 (Idalia) , Major: 310 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 310 (Idalia) Major: 310 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida

Re: Accuweather
Sun Jul 06 2008 03:40 PM

Certainly it is impossible to reliably say more than 5 days out whether Bertha will strike the Carolinas - or anywhere else for that matter. The Accuweather forecast, in terms of projected track, doesn't come as a shock to me, but the speed is too fast, when I look at the model outputs and the NHC forecast.
I expected more of a poleward motion to have begun over the weekend, but it hasn't, so I'm not sold on the storm getting caught up in the trough just yet.

Edit: I just looked back at the advisory archives. In the initial 5-day forecast, the 72HR line read:
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT
at 06/1500z, Bertha's actual location was 17.4 N...45.1 W. 45 KT

So I guess as far as poleward motion, it's on target based upon the 72 hour forecast, but it's 300nm west of the projected location. Did I do that math right?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

Edited by Hugh (Sun Jul 06 2008 03:49 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	MikeC	Sun Jul 06 2008 03:40 PM
Hurricane Bertha	John C	Mon Jul 07 2008 06:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Mon Jul 07 2008 03:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	LDH892	Mon Jul 07 2008 02:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 09:30 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 09:23 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	LoisCane	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 06:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Sun Jul 06 2008 05:56 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 05:02 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 04:56 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 06 2008 04:49 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 04:44 PM
Bertha intensifying	craigm	Sun Jul 06 2008 04:33 PM
Re: Accuweather	Genesis	Sun Jul 06 2008 04:17 PM
Re: Accuweather	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 03:40 PM
Re: Accuweather	LDH892	Sun Jul 06 2008 02:21 PM
Re: Accuweather	scottsvb	Sun Jul 06 2008 02:02 PM
Re: Accuweather	WeatherNut	Sun Jul 06 2008 01:57 PM
Accuweather	craigm	Sun Jul 06 2008 01:17 PM
Central Atlantic...Sunday	danielw	Sun Jul 06 2008 10:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	scottsvb	Sat Jul 05 2008 11:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	weatherguy08	Sat Jul 05 2008 09:25 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 05 2008 09:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	hurricaneguy	Sat Jul 05 2008 08:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 05 2008 04:59 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 05 2008 10:41 AM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Jul 05 2008 10:32 AM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	flanewscameraman	Sat Jul 05 2008 10:21 AM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	craigm	Sat Jul 05 2008 10:04 AM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	DarleneCane	Sat Jul 05 2008 09:19 AM
Bertha... Status Quo?	danielw	Fri Jul 04 2008 09:41 PM
Re: Bertha strengthening?	LoisCane	Fri Jul 04 2008 07:54 PM
Bertha strengthening?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jul 04 2008 02:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Fri Jul 04 2008 03:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Thu Jul 03 2008 11:35 PM
Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	MichaelA	Thu Jul 03 2008 12:49 PM
Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	JustMe	Thu Jul 03 2008 11:01 AM
Surprisingly Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	CoconutCandy	Thu Jul 03 2008 10:56 AM
Re: Watching Systems in the Eastern Caribbean and Far East Atlantic	cieldumort	Thu Jul 03 2008 04:27 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Wed Jul 02 2008 11:27 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Hugh	Wed Jul 02 2008 10:00 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Wed Jul 02 2008 07:40 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Lee-Delray	Wed Jul 02 2008 05:09 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Rich B	Wed Jul 02 2008 04:49 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	cieldumort	Wed Jul 02 2008 04:38 PM

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