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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru

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Posts: 125

Re: Accuweather
Sun Jul 06 2008 08:17 PM

I dunno....

When I look at the GFDL solution it is predicated on the ridge breaking down and the high retrograding NE by several hundred miles.

I find the CMC's solution rather interesting too - but not persuasive. It keys on a couple of VERY strong impulses north of the Canadian border that allow the ridge to buckle northward and while it takes Bertha almost to the Bahamas before it turns her, it then takes her poleward from there.

NoGaps has an even odder solution, with a massive high coming off the eastern seaboard, basically "pincing" Bertha between the Bermuda high and it, forcing it northward. But that one I buy - if the high shows up in 4-5 days and intensifies as it predicts.

The Wv loop gives some cred to this latter view - but IMHO the movement is too fast. And that, ultimately looks to be the key - if the connection is missed and the trough exits before Bertha gets where it can be influenced, the ridge will rebuild behind that and block polward movement.

So the slower and weaker she is, the more likely she remains westward-bound. Strength and especially speed likely gets her into the connection zone where she can be sucked into the gap as the ridge breaks, and out she'll go.

This far out I wouldn't even attach a probability on an impact on the ConUS, although were I in Bermuda I'd be a lot more nervous than being on the East Coast!

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	MikeC	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:17 PM
Hurricane Bertha	John C	Mon Jul 07 2008 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Mon Jul 07 2008 07:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	LDH892	Mon Jul 07 2008 06:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Mon Jul 07 2008 01:30 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Random Chaos	Mon Jul 07 2008 01:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Mon Jul 07 2008 12:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	LoisCane	Mon Jul 07 2008 12:13 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 10:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Sun Jul 06 2008 09:56 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 09:02 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:56 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:49 PM
Re: Bertha intensifying	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:44 PM
Bertha intensifying	craigm	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:33 PM
Re: Accuweather	Genesis	Sun Jul 06 2008 08:17 PM
Re: Accuweather	Hugh	Sun Jul 06 2008 07:40 PM
Re: Accuweather	LDH892	Sun Jul 06 2008 06:21 PM
Re: Accuweather	scottsvb	Sun Jul 06 2008 06:02 PM
Re: Accuweather	WeatherNut	Sun Jul 06 2008 05:57 PM
Accuweather	craigm	Sun Jul 06 2008 05:17 PM
Central Atlantic...Sunday	danielw	Sun Jul 06 2008 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	scottsvb	Sun Jul 06 2008 03:01 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 06 2008 01:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 06 2008 01:17 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	hurricaneguy	Sun Jul 06 2008 12:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 05 2008 08:59 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:41 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:32 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	flanewscameraman	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:21 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	craigm	Sat Jul 05 2008 02:04 PM
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?	DarleneCane	Sat Jul 05 2008 01:19 PM
Bertha... Status Quo?	danielw	Sat Jul 05 2008 01:41 AM
Re: Bertha strengthening?	LoisCane	Fri Jul 04 2008 11:54 PM
Bertha strengthening?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jul 04 2008 06:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	cieldumort	Fri Jul 04 2008 07:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands	typhoon_tip	Fri Jul 04 2008 03:35 AM
Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	MichaelA	Thu Jul 03 2008 04:49 PM
Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	JustMe	Thu Jul 03 2008 03:01 PM
Surprisingly Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis	CoconutCandy	Thu Jul 03 2008 02:56 PM
Re: Watching Systems in the Eastern Caribbean and Far East Atlantic	cieldumort	Thu Jul 03 2008 08:27 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Thu Jul 03 2008 03:27 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Hugh	Thu Jul 03 2008 02:00 AM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Wed Jul 02 2008 11:40 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Lee-Delray	Wed Jul 02 2008 09:09 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	Rich B	Wed Jul 02 2008 08:49 PM
Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic	cieldumort	Wed Jul 02 2008 08:38 PM

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