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News Talkback >> 2008 Storm Forum
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TS Bertha - A Reality Check
      Sun Jul 06 2008 04:31 PM

At this time, I suspect that the coordinates and intensity being used may be wrong.

Based on the most recent visible loops and a healthy 1620 UTC TRMM pass, my money is on Bertha being located a little north and left of where the NHC has her.. ATTM closer to 18N, and more or less now nuzzled closer to or just within the deeper convection to the LLC's west, and a long, arcing band that wraps around from the south to east to north and back around from the west.

Given this position, I suspect that Bertha has already started to intensify, has a Current Intensity much closer to 3.5, and is now in a better state to respond to any weaknesses in the ridge. How long this lasts, I think, will largely be based on how much shear Bertha encounters up ahead, as the significantly warming SSTs in her path should be countering the negative impact of the increasing wind shear, but maybe only by a little bit.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Bertha - A Reality Check Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Jul 06 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: TS Bertha - A Reality Check cieldumort   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:31 PM

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