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allan
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch
      Mon Jul 07 2008 04:41 PM

It's been amazing but shear is 20-30 knots to the north which should keep Bertha at category 1 or even a minimal 2 range. Once Bertha moves north of the islands, shear will weaken and Bertha might surprise us. As of now, unless shear dramatically weakens to the northwest, without an anticyclone anymore, Bertha should remain under major hurricane intensity! The latest GFS has two weaker troughs and just stalls Bertha while it slowly drifts northwest. I'd like to see the next few runs of this and other models. Bermuda is most likely to get hit with this but it would not surprise me that it reaches the USA coastline if the troughs are this weak. The first trough was already forecasted to be weak and lift Bertha north but now the GFS is showing the second trough that was supposed to recurve Bertha as a weak front that stalls after crossing the northeast. Interesting stuff. When I say latest GFS, it's the 12z run that is still running.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

I've been and still am looking for a recurvature west of Bermuda but east of the Carolinas. It's still a wait and see situation.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Mon Jul 07 2008 04:42 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A few changes with Bertha John C Mon Jul 07 2008 04:41 PM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha Hugh   Sat Jul 12 2008 02:11 AM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 12 2008 01:27 AM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha ~Floydbuster   Fri Jul 11 2008 11:27 PM
. * * Re:new way to look Gigsley   Fri Jul 11 2008 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Question LoisCane   Fri Jul 11 2008 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Question Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 11 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Question Beach   Fri Jul 11 2008 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest LoisCane   Fri Jul 11 2008 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 10 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Ed in Va   Thu Jul 10 2008 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 10 2008 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 03:41 PM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 10 2008 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 10 2008 09:23 AM
. * * Bertha back to a Category Two neospaceblue   Wed Jul 09 2008 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest JoshuaK   Wed Jul 09 2008 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Rich B   Wed Jul 09 2008 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest cieldumort   Wed Jul 09 2008 07:26 PM
. * * Discussion Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 05:15 PM
. * * Definite strengthening signaled by satellite... typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Bertha Influences?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Weakening Now Moving Northwest Rich B   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Weakening Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving WNW ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving WNW SATBEACH   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest cieldumort   Wed Jul 09 2008 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest WhitherWeather   Wed Jul 09 2008 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:58 AM
. * * Bertha Weakening. Robert   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LDH892   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:16 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Wed Jul 09 2008 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Wed Jul 09 2008 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest M.A.   Wed Jul 09 2008 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest cieldumort   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Robert   Tue Jul 08 2008 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch M.A.   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Hugh   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2008 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch allan   Mon Jul 07 2008 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch scottsvb   Mon Jul 07 2008 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 07 2008 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch allan   Mon Jul 07 2008 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha chase 22   Mon Jul 07 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Fr33z3y   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha scottsvb   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha craigm   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:41 AM

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