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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 273 (Idalia) , Major: 273 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 273 (Idalia) Major: 273 (Idalia)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest
      Thu Jul 10 2008 05:58 PM

Not beyond the realm of possibilities, actually...

There is always an element of uncertainty with TCs, in particular because of the unknowns in how they will interact with the surrounding atmospheric medium. In this situation, we have cyclic trough and ridge occurrence taking place in the general regions NW-N-NE of Bertha's current direction of motion. We can assess from common wisdom that troughs will tend to excite a northward/northeast motion, but ridges will stunt that and/or even resume west motions. The problem is, there's a spectrum of possibilities in how they will effect Bertha's track (and to some extent intensity) between these two plausibilities, which depends entirely on correctly modeling the strengths and timings of the synoptics as described.

Not an easy task, particularly when subtle permutations can lead to unexpected track shifts, few of which can be correctly assessed beyond a few days time.

In general though, the 12z GFS is not really that off the going thinking as of 11am. The official call is a general NW or even N motion that will be slow, and then a potentially stall 3 days from now. This is essentially what the GFS is indicating as far as I can tell. The question in this run is what takes place beyond D4... It seems the GFS is trying to lesson the latitudes in which that next trough digs off the east coast, and that is why in this run we don't see as much acceleration toward the graveyard as the other runs/models have intimated.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Jul 10 2008 06:02 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A few changes with Bertha John C Thu Jul 10 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha Hugh   Sat Jul 12 2008 02:11 AM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 12 2008 01:27 AM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha ~Floydbuster   Fri Jul 11 2008 11:27 PM
. * * Re:new way to look Gigsley   Fri Jul 11 2008 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Question LoisCane   Fri Jul 11 2008 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Question Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 11 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Question Beach   Fri Jul 11 2008 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest LoisCane   Fri Jul 11 2008 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 10 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Ed in Va   Thu Jul 10 2008 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 10 2008 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 03:41 PM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 10 2008 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 10 2008 09:23 AM
. * * Bertha back to a Category Two neospaceblue   Wed Jul 09 2008 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest JoshuaK   Wed Jul 09 2008 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Rich B   Wed Jul 09 2008 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest cieldumort   Wed Jul 09 2008 07:26 PM
. * * Discussion Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 05:15 PM
. * * Definite strengthening signaled by satellite... typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Bertha Influences?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Weakening Now Moving Northwest Rich B   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Weakening Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving WNW ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving WNW SATBEACH   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest cieldumort   Wed Jul 09 2008 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest WhitherWeather   Wed Jul 09 2008 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:58 AM
. * * Bertha Weakening. Robert   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LDH892   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:16 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Wed Jul 09 2008 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Wed Jul 09 2008 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest M.A.   Wed Jul 09 2008 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest cieldumort   Tue Jul 08 2008 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Robert   Tue Jul 08 2008 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch M.A.   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Hugh   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2008 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch allan   Mon Jul 07 2008 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch scottsvb   Mon Jul 07 2008 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 07 2008 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch allan   Mon Jul 07 2008 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha chase 22   Mon Jul 07 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Fr33z3y   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha scottsvb   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha craigm   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:41 AM

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