cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: A few changes with Bertha
Sat Jul 12 2008 04:17 AM
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Potentially less than ideal developments for the island nation of Bermuda.
Over the past eight hours Bertha has occasionally meandered, with, if anything, an overall course correction back left (biased back towards the northwest, if there's been much northerly component to speak of, at all).. I would bet dollars to donuts that over the last ten hours, smoothed out, she was certainly no longer heading perfectly NNW.
Given her current coordinates of something closer to 62.5W 29.5N (which suggests more of a NW track), even if Bertha was to now head basically due north until she reached the 32cd parallel, at this rate of speed, Bermuda could be raked by squalls virtually non-stop for over 24 hours... perhaps even days.
Of course, "Where's the beef?" Or, in this case, "Where's this northerly turn?" Maybe Bertha will essentially just sit and spin, waiting for the next trof to come along. If she sits and spins in place, and spins herself down in doing so, she might begin to drift even more west, or perhaps south, and miss the next trof again, altogether.
Looking at the models, several aren't even agreeing with themselves for more than one or two runs, right now. Currently, two main camps are evident:
1) Bertha meanders around, perhaps even largely over, Bermuda, and by about Monday, starts scooting off to the NNE or NE
2) Bertha meanders around, gets stuck, left to spin and meander around some more, and ends up not all that far to the N and/or NE of where she is tonight by days 5, 6, even 7
Of all these, the models that suggest she starts scooting out to the N/NE at a rapid pace by late Monday look a little suspect, as of right now, at least. They simply tend to be very bullish on the strength of the trof and related features coming off the east coast... and possibly on the northerly extent of Bertha's location by that time, as well, and so require one to make some leaps of faith that so far don't seem warranted. That leaves one to put a little more stock in to the runs that keep Bertha either stuck and meandering, or on a variable course - tending NW and maybe then N initially - and maybe hooking east to southeast beyond that --- the latter keeping Bermuda on TC watch over this entire weekend, and even possibly into next week.
(Post moved - see comments on first post in this thread.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 12 2008 09:54 AM)
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