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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida

Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things
Mon Jul 14 2008 01:39 AM

Quote:

Over the past several hours convection has gone from light, moderate and scattered to widespread and deep, and now appears to be blowing up over an incipient LLC.

I was just about to note that, too. The hint of a circulation that I mentioned earlier, is still there... and it's looking very impressive right now, overall. Rapid movement could slow its development, but that didn't hamper Bertha's development at all. Generally when the NHC says something like "A tropical depression could form at any time", they're looking for something very specific that they haven't seen yet. If the current apparently organization continues overnight, I believe advisories may be initiated as early as 5am, when visible imagery should be available.

The long-term model tracks for this system are extremely disconcerting. GFS and GFDL imply an eastern seaboard threat, while LBAR and BAMM indicate a South American impact. BAMD, which is the most up-to-date model on WU, splits the difference, taking the system straight through the central Caribbean, on a path toward Jamaica.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Bertha Near Bermuda, Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:39 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2008 07:58 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 06:41 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Tue Jul 15 2008 04:57 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:49 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	weathernet	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:40 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:39 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:22 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:13 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:07 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Freezey	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:03 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:54 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	metwannabe	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:41 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:41 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:20 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:10 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 10:55 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	MichaelA	Mon Jul 14 2008 10:23 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	xxflcyclonexx	Mon Jul 14 2008 09:12 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	doug	Mon Jul 14 2008 08:57 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:52 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	CDMOrlando	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:23 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	metwannabe	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:54 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:52 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	lawgator	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:51 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	ftlaudbob	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:10 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	xxflcyclonexx	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:57 PM
Re: Bertha Near Bermuda, Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:53 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:29 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:18 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Cat 5orBust	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:11 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	doug	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:06 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:58 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:51 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	metwannabe	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:20 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Sophie	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:04 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:39 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Wingman51	Mon Jul 14 2008 12:45 PM
Re: Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2008 10:35 AM
Re: Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 09:10 AM
Re: Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	Freezey	Mon Jul 14 2008 09:03 AM
Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:47 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Clark	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:14 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	weathernet	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:43 AM
Bertha, 94L and the Bahamas	danielw	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:40 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:38 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Freezey	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:33 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:25 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:56 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:04 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	craigm	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:01 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:51 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:30 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Freezey	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:09 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	hurricaneguy	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:02 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:39 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:27 AM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	ftlaudbob	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:59 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:48 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:40 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:36 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	cieldumort	Sun Jul 13 2008 10:18 PM
Cristobal - "The Wave"	weathernet	Sun Jul 13 2008 09:58 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	LoisCane	Sun Jul 13 2008 09:45 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 06:01 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Rich B	Sun Jul 13 2008 06:01 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	danielw	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:52 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	danielw	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:48 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:36 PM
Bertha Vortex Message	danielw	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:18 PM
Re: trifecta	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 04:01 PM
Re: trifecta	scottsvb	Sun Jul 13 2008 02:39 PM
Re: trifecta	LoisCane	Sun Jul 13 2008 02:39 PM
trifecta	HanKFranK	Sun Jul 13 2008 01:41 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda	stormchazer	Sun Jul 13 2008 10:23 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 12 2008 11:37 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda	Sophie	Sat Jul 12 2008 10:18 PM

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