Bertha Near Bermuda, Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles

Mike~ I must disagree with your perception of 94L not having been seperated from the ITCZ. Though we do not have the luxury yet of visable pictures yet, it seems very evident to me that we have one large tropical cyclone with a dominant circulation. The overall circulation appears to me to be centered between 11-12N, and appears quite impressive on the JSL resolution.

With regard to those those concerned about anticipated "hype" relating to 94L, suffice it to say that when NHC claims a system may develop into a Tropical Depression at any time...., this often means "...we have a depression and lets get one more scat pass or some vis. sats to verify. I would also say that I do not see any inhibiting factors for what appears to be a fairly good size envelope/system to develop into a named storm within 24 hours. Beyond that, I am seeing differing and altering data on how strong this system might develop into, and also think too premature to speculate on that yet. With regards to potential motion and possible short term concerns......, it is not a stretch to say that some portion of the Lesser Antilies may well be threatened by some form of Tropical Storm ( or greater? ) conditions in the few days to come. 94L appears to be moving westward under a building mid level E. Atlantic ridge, and as most larger envelope systems go more westward, there does not seem to be any digging mid Atlantic troughs to break down the ridge in place. Only fly in the ointment could be T.S. Bertha, but it appears to be cut off from the westerlies and trapped in the very ridge, that should also keep 94L on a general 270-285 heading in the short term.

While the convection may wane in its intensity and not yet offer a consistant CDO, I would suggest that if a bursting process continues, this at minimum would seem to indicate slow falling surface pressures. I see no appearant upper level shear and outflow to the northwest to northeast quadrants do not appear inhibited at this time. I'll go out waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out on a limb and guess 94L to be a named depression by 5:00pm Monday eve. ( though I would guess named Cristobal by sometime Monday night as well ).

(That indeed would be way out on a limb - we have only had a few model runs - most of them from the tropical suite - give it a chance to form first - initial model runs were initiated too far to the south.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 14 2008 07:17 PM)

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