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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
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Posts: 576

Re: Bertha Near Bermuda, Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles
Mon Jul 14 2008 04:53 PM

It is interesting to me that the GFS model went from multi-day, multi-run consistency for development of 94L...for a weeks worth of runs for that matter...and then all at once last night's 00z run abandoned the idea almost entirely, leaving only an open wave to pass harmlessly into the Caribbean.

That strikes me suspiciously as some kind of data ingest and/or assimilation errors being fed into the model. The 06z run continued that no development idea.

The GFDL went south and weaker, but that is understandable because the GFDL is initialized/parameterized off the GFS data; perhaps another clue the that GFS has been dealt some odd data for processing.

It should be noted, however, that the ECM has not really been too happy about this system, for about the last 3 day's worth of runs. It did have it 4 and 5 days back, more robustly, but since has been paltry at best.

Currently, there is a fairly obvious cyclonic curl to the convective debris/showers of 94L. I don't see any overwhelmingly negative factors for development. The deep layer shear analysis has a general easterly component at all levels; and given that 94L is in fact moving west means that here storm relative shear is actually quite low. That said, with amply warm water and decent capacity for instantiating anticyclonic outflow above any convective concentrations that get going near the core, this should have an opportunity to develop. Interestingly, the last 1 hour of loop shows a rather obvious banded feature on the northern semi-circle, with cooling cloud tops.

It is important to note that even though the models did exceptionally well sniffing out Bertha prior to her birth, that does not necessarily mean they will all handle every situation with the same result. Sometimes the models will be vague about development and we wind up with a major hurricane, such as Felix (2007).

An ending idea to this... If a deeper system gets going, it may in fact end up more around the NE Windwards as opposed to cutting straight west in the Caribbean.

John

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Bertha Near Bermuda, Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:53 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Tue Jul 15 2008 07:58 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 06:41 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Tue Jul 15 2008 04:57 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:49 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	weathernet	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:40 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Tue Jul 15 2008 03:39 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:22 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:13 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:07 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Freezey	Tue Jul 15 2008 12:03 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:54 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	metwannabe	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:41 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:41 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:20 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 11:10 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 10:55 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	MichaelA	Mon Jul 14 2008 10:23 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	xxflcyclonexx	Mon Jul 14 2008 09:12 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	doug	Mon Jul 14 2008 08:57 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:52 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	CDMOrlando	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:23 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	metwannabe	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:54 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:52 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	lawgator	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:51 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	ftlaudbob	Mon Jul 14 2008 06:10 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	xxflcyclonexx	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:57 PM
Re: Bertha Near Bermuda, Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:53 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:29 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 04:18 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Cat 5orBust	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:11 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	doug	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:06 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:58 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:51 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	metwannabe	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:20 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Sophie	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:04 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:39 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Wingman51	Mon Jul 14 2008 12:45 PM
Re: Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2008 10:35 AM
Re: Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 09:10 AM
Re: Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	Freezey	Mon Jul 14 2008 09:03 AM
Bertha lurches towards Bermuda	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:47 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Clark	Mon Jul 14 2008 07:14 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	weathernet	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:43 AM
Bertha, 94L and the Bahamas	danielw	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:40 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	scottsvb	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:38 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Freezey	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:33 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 05:25 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	MikeC	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:56 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:04 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	craigm	Mon Jul 14 2008 03:01 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:51 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	LoisCane	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:30 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Freezey	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:09 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	hurricaneguy	Mon Jul 14 2008 02:02 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	Hugh	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:39 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things	cieldumort	Mon Jul 14 2008 01:27 AM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	ftlaudbob	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:59 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:48 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	MikeC	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:40 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 11:36 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	cieldumort	Sun Jul 13 2008 10:18 PM
Cristobal - "The Wave"	weathernet	Sun Jul 13 2008 09:58 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	LoisCane	Sun Jul 13 2008 09:45 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 06:01 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Rich B	Sun Jul 13 2008 06:01 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	danielw	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:52 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	danielw	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:48 PM
Re: Bertha Vortex Message	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:36 PM
Bertha Vortex Message	danielw	Sun Jul 13 2008 05:18 PM
Re: trifecta	Hugh	Sun Jul 13 2008 04:01 PM
Re: trifecta	scottsvb	Sun Jul 13 2008 02:39 PM
Re: trifecta	LoisCane	Sun Jul 13 2008 02:39 PM
trifecta	HanKFranK	Sun Jul 13 2008 01:41 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda	stormchazer	Sun Jul 13 2008 10:23 AM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 12 2008 11:37 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda	Sophie	Sat Jul 12 2008 10:18 PM

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